Thursday, November 30, 2006
Bipartisan BS
The New Citizenship
Congo: Peacekeeping/Nationbuilding Done Right?
Bundling (Linkage) in the Mid East
The Dollar's Slide
LA Quick Hits: The Murdering Prez, Mayhem in Mex, Evo Wins and Chile Changes
- Former Mexican Prez Luis Echevarria may be charged with genocide for his role in the '68 massacre of students, he was the interior minister at the time. An appeals court ruled that the statute of limitations had not expired as a previous court declared. As for Fox he is still worthless. For all the talk and all the promises in six years not one single person has ever been convicted for the killing of at least 600 and torture of many more.
- Calderon says security is a priority. Meanwhile the violence continues: a police chief was killed in Tijuana and 3 of 5 kidnapped men remain captive. 2 men, one of them American, were released yesterday.
- The standoff in the Chamber of Deputies continues with PAN and PRD members camping out trying to maintain access to the dais for December 1. According to AP the PAN members control a "strategic strip of platform that leads to a side entrance." Seriously this is better than any telenovela and funnier too.
- Calderon has named a confidante to handle relations with the US. Arturo Sarukhan will be posted in the Foreign Ministry and report to Patricia Espinosa. This sends the right message as to how important he views relations with US.
- Evo may have one the land reform battle but the war wages on. The right is freaking out over Evo's victory and there are still going to be challenges implementing the new law.
- Activists and lawyers push for social change in "conservative" Chile. Chile provides morning after pills for free for anyone over 14 and have a president who lived in East Germany, studied at Karl Marx University, is still married but has a child with another man and had an affair once with a communist terrorist. Can the myth of conservative Chile be put to rest please?
- The opposition is pleading for Hugo to play fair on election day...nice try.
Chistmas Has Been Cancelled in Vienna
Wednesday, November 29, 2006
Evo Wins! Land Reform Passes
A Review of Max Boot's Latest
Overall, I feel that Boot's focus on four separate and distinct military revolutions since 1500 is misleading. Change is pervasive and continual. Fixing on a few periods and aspects of military innovation, as he does, imposes far too tight a corset on the sprawling confusion of human affairs. By schematizing his story so drastically, he minimizes surprises and almost entirely overlooks the larger human setting—moral and intellectual as well as social and economic—within which wars are fought. Professional fighting men are not wholly autonomous and the perpetual social flux within which they, like everyone else, actually exist needs always to be taken into account when trying to understand their victories and defeats.
Brain Latell on Fidel's Final Words
But what would the man who has spoken more words on the public record than any human in history want to say? Recent rumors emanating from the island that he is experiencing a deathbed religious catharsis, possibly even repenting and recanting, seem wildly improbable. He has never during nearly forty-eight years of public life openly confessed to morally indefensible behavior or admitted to regrets about his treatment of others. All his life he has been incapable of introspection of any type in the presence of witnesses. So if he were in fact to rally and deliver another oration it would most likely resemble his two most recent ones, both of which were void of any personal or emotional content or policy initiatives.
LA Quick Hits:The Venezuelan Winner, No Fiesta for Fidel, Evo Justice,Correa's Latest and More Mexican Trouble
- Who is going to come out on top in Venezuela? It depends on which poll you consult and who performed it.
- Castro is too poopped to party - he will be skipping his delayed b-day festivities.
- Evo is all for instituting Inca justice - including whippings. Speaking before his people who have once again descended from the mountains to come to La Paz Evo promised to push through his land reform.
- Correa says he'll work with his Congress (en esp.)...if they do what he says. If not he is going the Hugo route and draw up a new constitution. This is nothing new he had already promised this before.
- Correa gets love from Peru. Alan Garcia and loser Ollanta Humala congratulate Correa.
- HoustonChron notes that Patricia Espinosa is the second female Foreign Minister and LAT notes that Calderon's picks are friends.
- 5 hunters, 3 of which are Americans, were kidnapped in northern Mexico. Apparently they were ambushed by over 30 armed men.
- A Cuban-American PAC is in trouble with the FEC. They blame the Castro loving ARCA group for snitching. It's true that ARCA loves Fidel but that doesn't excuse anyone from doing anything illegal.
Buchanan: Putin the Patsy
Tuesday, November 28, 2006
Jorge Castaneda on Venezuelan Elections
In a sense, this support might be perceived as a paradoxical condemnation of Chavez's policies: he likes the poor, which is why they support him, and he tries to help them with his social policies. But poverty has not really diminished in Venezuela since 2000, so the poor also remain extremely numerous. Like so many populists in Latin America, Hugo Chavez loves the poor as they are, and wants to keep them that way.Castaneda also notes that Hugo could have some issues down the road:
Conversely, if Rosales ends up not more than 5 percentage points behind the president, the opposition's protests might have some effect. That's because Chavez has manipulated the system to benefit his candidacy: he's stacked the electoral authority with his own party people, he's largely stifled the opposition media and the government bought the U.S.-based electronic voting company that will tabulate the nationwide vote. Those factors, combined with a tight vote, could prompt the international groups including The Carter Center, European Union and the Organization of American States to declare that the election was illegitimate. Many of Chavez's opponents at home and abroad are hoping that scenario plays out .Castaneda has a great deal more faith in the observers than I do.
Today in LA...
- The very predictable NYT is assuring us that Ecuadorian prez-elect Raf Correa promises to be a moderate lefty, heck he admires the US and loves the Dems. The Dem loving comes by way of his admiration of useless economist John Kenneth Galbraith and his lack of interest in a free trade pact with US. Several sources stressed that we should ignore his Hugo loving but it is rather hard to so - first Correa expressed the hope of getting much, much closer to Hugo. Then there is the fact that he is following Hugo's footsteps. As the Herald notes Hugo first swipe at the US was ending counternarcotics operations and Correa is doing the same. Finally Hugo hated the idea of an Andean Community (CAN) for trade comprised of Peru, Bolivia, Colombia and Chile - so Correa has expressed his intention to do Hugo's bidding (en esp.) and leave and to go to Mercosur.
- Mexican politics has taken a telenovelaish turn. The PRD kept saying that they were going to impede Calderon's inauguration on Dec 1 similar to the way they stopped Fox from delivering the Mexican version of the state of the union. This despite polling that the public would not support the disruption. Today PRD deputies with their commie (PT) buddies tried to take over the dais of the Congress of Deputies some PAN members got there and the result was a scuffle. Later in the evening a second charge also failed (en esp.). Needless to say Fox is cowering at a hotel in the DF. He tried the Cheney "undisclosed location" bit but failed miserably. He has pleaded with Calderon to relocate his inauguration, Calderon more of a man than Fox could ever hope to be has opted to go with the traditional ceremony.
- Calderon rounded out his cabinet selections with a shot across the bow of the opposition and a headscratcher. The lefties have no love for the interior minister pick, Francisco Ramirez, the governor of Jalisco. As for the Foreign Minister post he selected Patricia Espinosa. I found it inspired that he tapped a woman for the post but would have expected someone of greater heft or importance to assume the post.
- Evo says he will rule by edict (en esp.) if the Senate does not get it together and follow his lead.
- Some of the most prominent leaders of the dissident movement in Cuba have called for the embargo to be loosened a bit. The hardliners in Miami are up in arms. Here's a newsflash for these geniuses - as I mentioned about two years ago the only thing stopping the lifting of the embargo is one guy and his veto pen. In two years he will be gone and God only knows who will be sitting in his place. Now is the time to reassess our strategy as it pertains to Cuba. If I were a conservative Cuban-American, and actually I am, I would seek to lift the embargo on my terms. It makes no sense to continue in this all or nothing gambit because in the end the hardliners could end up with zilch. It is up to them. I hope they come to realize the reality of their situation. I hope they come to realize that the country that has given them shelter, freedom and so much more is better served by trying a different tack with Cuba. It is about time that we put aside the personal issues and work for the greater good.
- Norman Bailey has been picked to be mission manager for intelligence on Cuba and Venezuela.
- Castro moved his b-day celebration to Dec 2 thinking he would be there. Now people aren't so sure. Hugo is not expected to make it due to the elections but let's see how cocky he feels. Hugo in Havana would mean that he is so sure of victory that he does not give three hoots about Venezuelans.
- Chile and Colombia (en esp.) have signed a free trade pact.
- Nicaragua's abortion ban which does not provide for any exceptions has claimed the life of a woman and her unborn child. Ironically the Sandinistas are the ones that pushed this measure to assuage any fears that the Church may have about its return to power.
Monday, November 27, 2006
Today in LA...
- Hugo loving Rafael Correa has come out on top in Ecuador. This promises to be not so good news for US. The country's wealthiest tycoon Alvaro Noboa, doing his William Jennings Bryan/Harold Stassen, impersonation has gone down a third time. CNN.com has a quickie Q&A on what Correa is about.
- In Venezuela Hugo told supporters (en esp.) that he was going to crush the opposition in the upcoming elections. That is a foregone conclusion considering how the government is pulling out all the stops to assure a victory.
- A "banda" singer is shot dead in Mexico. His manager was also killed. "Banda" singers much like hardcore rap artists of days of yore run with dangerous crowds and have a tendency to associate with one drug gang or another.
- I will try to be as respectful as I can with this one: Raul Velasco, the host of the Mexican variety show Siempre en Domingo has passed away, appropriately on a Sunday. Not going to sugarcoat it - the show was awful. I will forever be haunted by the terrible acts that populated its stage and will never forgive my father and grandmother for subjecting me to it - mom used to object. My wife says that I shouldn't speak ill of Don Raul, even though she had little love for the man. She notes that without Velasco there would be no Luis Miguel, Ricky Martin, Yuri or Chayanne...which coincidentally is what my idea of heaven is.
- Court offices in Oaxaca were set on fire by protestors. I think I'm only going to post when something doesn't happen in Oaxaca.
- Fox faints - the Mexican Prez doing his Berlusconi impersonation fainted.
- Evo is still fighting with the opposition. There is currently a hunger strike featuring more than 200 people opposed to Evo's policies.
- In typical Miami fashion a Cuban exile wants his $1million+ back from CANF. They were supposed to kill Fidel with the cash but Fidel is still alive.
- Colombian Senator admitted to backing right-wing militias.
Saturday, November 25, 2006
Today in LA...
- The election in Ecuador is too close to call. Lefty Rafael Correa is closing in on Alvaro Noboa. Unfortunately according to the latest poll the election is Venezuela is not close at all - Chavez is at 59%.
- Evo is having his issues. Evo called on the mountain people to come on down and surround the Congress - he hopes to punch through land redistribution. Evo is so frustrated that he has proposed disbanding the Senate. Once again land redistribution is the issue. Demonstrators in Santa Cruz successfully interrupted Evo's speech. They are demanding autonomy.
- Calderon named his cabinet and much to no one's surprise they are all PAN people. Along with the nominations was the call for social justice and universal healthcare. AMLO's minions were not impressed and protested anyways.
- Is it news that police and protestors clashed (again) in Oaxaca.
- I'm married to a Mexican and trust me they all think this way about gringos.
- Another Mexican journalist was killed, the third in a month. This time in Veracruz.
- Open borders down south: Nationals in all 12 South American countries will no longer need visas to cross the border.
- Students in Chile reflect on the "Penguin Revolution" that gripped the country when they decided to take the streets with their demands.
Friday, November 24, 2006
Screw the World I Only Have Time for LA
- Mexico, Mexico, Mexico - A councilman and a police chief for a Monterrey suburb are shot dead. A muckracking journalist from Nuevo Laredo died - of natural causes. The mayor of Tijuana is not shedding tears over the loss. The head of administration for the Fox government is asking for forgiveness for not doing enough to stem the slaughter in Ciudad Juarez (en esp.). A drug gang is now claiming to be one of the good guys and they want everyone to know so they went ahead and took out a full page ad. A sobering report notes that 97 infants under the age of one die every day (en esp.) - the most dangerous place for these infants? The home.
- President-elect Calderon is reaching out to three minor parties (en esp.) in the Chamber of Deputies. He has written letters to the "liberal" (liberal in the traditional non-American sense) Nueva Alianza, the social democratic Alternativa and the Greens (all en esp.). He is searching for common ground.
- NYT has a story on Wal Mart doing retail banking in Mexico.
Thursday, November 23, 2006
Happy Kaplangiving
This is nonsense. Our foreign policy is about to experience an adjustment, not a flip-flop. Neither political party will support anything else if it really wants to elect a president in 2008. Just look at the dismay in this country over our failure to intervene in Darfur, even given the burden we already carry in Iraq. To be sure, the recent evidence that our democratic system cannot be violently exported will temper our Wilsonian principles, but it will not bury them. Pure realism -- without a hint of optimism or idealism -- would immobilize our mass immigrant democracy, which has always seen itself as an agent of change.He adds:
The lesson is not that we won't intervene again. We will, and often. But we will do so with the caution and hesitation shown in the 1990s and only as part of an authentic coalition. To wit, just as NATO's war in Kosovo had a British face and voice -- that of its spokesman, Jamie Shea -- any intervention in North Korea (should it ever come to that) will put the South Korean military front and center and will have the implicit cooperation of the Chinese army. Otherwise, we won't do it.He closes with an appeal for a realism with idealism. Something I like to call Reaganism, but that's just me:
The debacle in Iraq has reinforced the realist dictum, disparaged by idealists in the 1990s, that the legacies of geography, history and culture really do set limits on what can be accomplished in any given place. But the experience in the Balkans reinforced an idealist dictum that is equally true: One should always work near the limits of what is possible rather than cynically give up on any place. In this decade idealists went too far; in the previous one, it was realists who did not go far enough.
Iraq has relegitimized realism, which is a good thing. But without an idealistic component to our foreign policy, there would be nothing to distinguish us from our competitors. And that, in and of itself, would lead to the decline of American power.
...and the World
- The Dutch held an election that only helped muddle things. NYT thinks that the right of center Christian Dems will be forced to tack left and smugly noted that anti-immigration efforts could be thwarted. That may be true but it seems to me that an anti-immigrant majority still holds if you read the more comprehensive WaPost story. Most telling is the anti-Burqa/anti-veil law controversy or lack thereof. Apparently no major Dutch figure opposed it.
- With a record number of civilian dead in Iraq it is easy to forget that there is another active front in the Global War on Terror. A spike of insurgent activity in Afghanistan has lead to over 2,000 USAF strikes in the past six months.
- Robert Novak reports that some Republicans and conservatives are upset that Rumsfeld was fired and/or the way he was canned. Some Republicans and conservatives are obviously idiots.
- American - Greek ties are getting a little frosty.
- Lebanon is a mess. People are getting ticked off and US influence is ebbing.
Today in LA...
- Colombia and the US have signed a new trade pact but its prospects are dim now that the Dems are coming over. WaPost touches on increasing nervousness in LA over the new Dem Congress. Personally I think it is a nefarious Dem plot to secure electoral victories in perpetuity. Here's how it goes - nix free trade down south sinking economies and boosting unemployment. This then encourages people to jump the border to the US, stand up for the illegals and promise them the world, ensure the right to driver's licenses and allow lax enforcement of motor voter and viola - a Dem Majority!
- LAT has a good and depressing piece on the collapse of civil society in northern Mexico specifically Nuevo Laredo. The pusillanimous Fox Admin took years to address the violence and its only significant measure - sending in federal cops - has since been rescinded. At the HoustonChron a death of a local cacique in Acayucan demonstrates that violence in Mexico is not exclusive to the border towns.
- NYT is a bit late on the news that the completely worthless Fox Admin waited until the 11th hour to put out an 800 page report detailing what everyone already knew - that three former presidents had used violence, torture and murder to subdue dissidents and enemies. Only one is still alive and genocide charges against him were thrown out when a judge ruled that the statute of limitations had expired.
- Both the OAS and the EUnuchs will have observers present for the Venezuelan elections. Even worse news - the Carter Center will be there too.
- 17 cents a gallon! Holy crap! That is what Venezuelans pay for gas and apparently that is not going to change anytime soon since left, right and center all agree that this is a good thing. Of course this creates inefficiencies and costs the government billions in lost revenue but that's LA for ya.
- The Herald reports on an effort to boost Nicaragua's economy; the Millennium Challenge Corporation is funding it.
- Let's get this party started right/ Let's get this party started quickly - lame ass hit but proper sentiment to the rumors that Castro is not in good shape. Trust me if he croaks you'll want to be in Miami for the party.
- The opposition to Evo in the Bolivian Senate is promising to boycott in the hopes of stalling some of his "reforms." Evo is ticked.
China Time: Blame it Dr. J.
Over in Taipei the heat is growing on Chen and observers are freaking that he may do something desperate - like a referendum on independence. I'm surprised that KMT would be so high on dumping him. Seriously would Annette Lu really make things better for them. Ms. Lu is a rhetorical bombthrower who is bound to rile the Reds.
Jimmy at the Vatican?
Tuesday, November 21, 2006
In the Tanks: al Qaeda Lives!, Rwanda Rules!, Kagan Konspiracy and Ali Bumaye!
Over at the American Enterprise Institute you can read about Rwanda's rebound and Fredrick Kagan on either ramping up or ramping out of Iraq - there is no viable middle ground. Speaking of the infamous Kagan clan I've started Robert Kagan's Dangerous Nation and while not exactly on par with his groundbreaking Of Paradise and Power it is an intriguing work with a rather unique perspective. It is also pretty well written.
The controversial Ayann Hirsi Ali also finds herself at AEI and her latest speech is posted on their site.
The Mags: Foreign Bargain, Commentary's Facelift, American Dream
Neo-con central, aka as Commentary, has a new look and it is a vast improvement over the old. Check it out no matter your stripe Commentary is always interesting. In the latest issue Amir Taheri wants to get serious about Iran. In the last FP neo-con Joshua Muravchik propsed getting a whole lot more serious.
Being a James Glassman fan I find it hard to believe that I had not heard of The American, a new magazine of ideas and business. Glassman has long been in the vanguard exploring issues that affect business, society, science and culture and this promises to be much of the same. I wish them well and will subscribe as soon as I can figure out a way to hide the fact from my wife that I have paid for yet another magazine that I will never get around to reading.
Mexican Stuff: el Rayito as Prez, Inane Ramblings, Milking It and Calderon's Eco Team
LAT went so far as to get a quote from Denise Dresser co-author of the Mexican version of Jon Stewart's best-selling America (The Book). I know I'm off on a tangent but I have to justify my L. American cred. Well that and her co-author is the brilliant novelist Jorge Volpi (bio's a little dated - he now has his own magazine) Since I am already off-topic I should mention that Volpi's latest, the conclusion of his 20th Century trilogy, No sera la tierra, is out now.
Back to Mexico - the papers therefrom the right, left and center gave the AMLO circus the front page but have already moved on to more pressing issues. Of greater import is the recent announcment of the Fox government to raise the price of milk and gas. Milk will go up a peso from 3.50 to 4.50. The Congress of Deputies backed a motion pleading with Los Pinos to reconsider. Don't count on it and considering the tradition of end of sexenio surprises this is nothing. Sexenio surprises were the inevitable byproduct of corrupt PRI governments artificially pumping up the economy to secure electoral victories. Once the election was over bills would come due and collapse would soon follow. Zedillo managed not to drop one on Fox, but Mexicans must remember that Salinas' mess lead to Zedillo's devaluation of the peso and a US bailout.
Last and far from least Calderon may be busy deflecting criticism that Fox is doing his bidding by raising milk and gas prices now but he hasn't been so busy that he can't announce his economic team. AgustÃn Carstens, who got his PhD at the U of Chicago, has been tapped to head the Finance Ministry. Somewhere Uncle Milty must be smiling. Kudos to the Dallas Morning Herald.
The Reason
I'm Back
So here I am. I don't think that I will change much. I'll still ramble about things I know nothing about with the desperate attempt to sway the feeble minded. Ultimately I will try to focus on Latin America since it is what I supposedly know best. This seems unlikely however since my interests are too broad and varied to stick to one part of the globe particularly one so dysfunctional and infruriating.
Thanks again for looking me up.