LA Quick Hits Special Sat. Edition: Tijuana, Castro Will Die, Kirchner Haters, Norgie Nastiness, Mexican Mess, AMLO Returns, Lots of Hugo & Much More

Obviously I have nothing else better to do this morning-

• Surprising smackdown of Hugo by OAS Sec Gen Jose Miguel Insuza. He rips the Bolivarian Bully for shutting down RCTV - Venezuela's most popular network.
  
• The Tijuana police are back at "work." I say "work" because many believe that Tijuana cops do extra work for dealers and cartels. The public at large is thrilled that their guns have been taken away. The HoustonChron and NYT got the news late.
• US officials still believe that Castro will kick the bucket soon although they did stay away from the word "cancer."
• Huge controversy in Norge over Cuban officials not being allowed to stay in a hotel owned by Hilton. Now I may not like the embargo but it is the law of our land so the Norgies should kick back have one of those disgusting akvavits and relax.
• Kirchner's unannounced re-election bid is drawing candidates. Carlos Menem, oblivious to his staggering unpopularity is giving it another go. Also running is Roberto Lavgna, the economy minister who helped Argentina back on its feet and was unceremoniously dumped by Kirchner once his job was done. This is called pulling a Domingo Cavallo and the result should be the same. In case you were wondering Cavallo also has a website.
• Evo has grown frustrated with the opposition (the democratic process) and has made noises that he will proceed with his reforms without the Constitutional Assembly. (en esp.)
• The Hugo Shuffle continues with his bro taking over education (en esp.)...insert joke here.
  
• FT gives some lousy advice on how to deal with Hugo. It says we should reach out and talk. Stupid gringos never figure out that the anti-Americanism whether real or feigned is a vital part of the governing philosophy of the Loony Latin Left. They need someone to blame for all that ails their countries and the colossus to the north is an easy target. Hugo will talk only when petrol drops and he has no choice. That or if we elect Charles Rangel prez.
• A teen has been arrested in Venezuela for hacking into gov't sites and basically mocking Hugo.
  
• Ecuador is a riskier investment than Iraq...chew on that one for a while.
• Speaking of Ecuador the two deaths from the ETA bombings were Ecuadorian immigrants. One of them came home yesterday. (en esp.)
• A former Colombian cabinet minister escaped captivity after being held six years.
• New Presidents Ortega and Calderon have two basic issues that they will focus on this year. Calderon is stressing security (en esp.) while Ortega is stressing out over the economy. (en esp.)
• Nine bodies were found Michoacan.
• Guerrero is next for Calderon. (en esp.)
  
• Marcela Sanchez from WaPost bemoans the lack of int'l leadership in LA. Most leaders are focusing on domestic issues leaving the platform to the rabble rousing of Hugo.
• The PRD run DF government has a 250 million peso discrepancy - this is me trying not to be surprised.
  
• Chile is projecting 4.2% growth this year, its lowest in three years. (en esp.)
• Pulling a Saban (bold faced lie) - Dems are telling Colombians that their free trade pact isn't good enough for Colombia so they're seeking changes that will help all Colombians....uh...yeah, right.
• Danny Ortega wants a new presidential palace (en esp.) and it will cost the impoverished country $9 million to pay for the whole darned thing.
• AMLO is pulling an Oprah and getting a TV show. Hat tip Vivirlatino.
  

Which Left is Winning?

I kind of like Alvaro Vargas Llosa. No, he does not posses his father's talents nor is he nuanced in his views and yes Liberty in Latin America, despite the promising title, was a painful read but Alvaro's heart is in the right place. Incidentally Liberty in Latin America is so bad that it almost made me a Chavista (just kidding). In a recent piece Alvaro notes that there have been 12 elections and 12 months and while the left is obviously winning, it is not clear which left is clearly ahead. More interesting to me is his take on the post-Fidel outlook in Cuba and Venezuela's role:

Will next year bring a change to the balance of power that seems to exist between the carnivores and the vegetarians? One factor could alter this balance of power: Cuba after Fidel. With the Maximo Lider on his way out, Chavez will assume, probably next year, the definitive leadership of the carnivores. But it is by no means a foregone conclusion that he will dictate the terms of the new Cuba.

His relationship with Raul Castro is tense. Yes, he has important allies, notably Cuban Vice President Carlos Lage, who hinted sometime ago at creating a confederation of the two countries with Chavez as president. But other “apparatchiks” resent his intrusion and are beginning to develop nationalistic sentiments that could well limit Venezuela’s influence after Fidel dies.

Castro “made” Chavez by anointing him his continental heir and helping him set up a powerful political structure a well as the foundations of the social aid network through which the Venezuelan government has made itself indispensable for large numbers of poor people. The symbolism of Cuba turning away from Venezuela would be powerful enough to do what three severe setbacks Chavez suffered in 2006—the Peruvian elections, the Mexican elections, and Venezuela’s failure to win the Latin American seat at the U.N. Security Council—did not quite achieve: bringing his regional projection back to modest proportions.

All this is quite interesting but a radical swing either towards or away from Venezuela is unlikely. One of Fidel's most trusty weapons in his bag of tricks is nationalism. There is no way that you could sell the Cuban people on a confederation with Venezuela taking the lead. Of course Raul is testy once it comes to Chavez, he recognizes the latter's obsession with succeeding Fidel in the international stage. As for Lage lining up on the opposite end that is no surprise considering that he has illusions/delusions of his own. With no internal power base to match Raul's he needs to turn to the outside for support

As for turning away that is just as unlikely. Venezuela gives Cuba too much in terms of fuel. Cuba now owes Venezuela - so much that it can't just ignore Chavez. With the only other major benefactor in the region being the US Raul is in a tough spot. I would imagine the savier Castro bro triangulating between the two extremes.