Thursday, November 30, 2006

Bipartisan BS

One of the things that annoys me most is bs bipartisanship. Partnership for a Secure America says all the right things and even tops off its Advisory Board with two Republicans yet you don't have to dig to far to find it's Dem angle. The staff of four only has one from the GOP. Its blog, Across the Aisle, has ten contributors, only one of which comes from the party of Lincoln. Rather absurdly a recent post even refers to the moderate Lincoln Chafee. Now I don't have a personal beef with Sen. Chaffee but why insist on labeling a lefty member of the Senate as such. What conservative position did he ever advocate?

The New Citizenship

The Heritage Foundation brags about its involvement in devising the new citizenship test. The new exam will be tried out in 10 locations, including Miami (this has the wife a tad freaked). All 144 questions and answers are now available online. I like the new test it stresses concepts and meanings of American historical moments rather than focusing on names and dates. It gives prospective citizens a better understanding of what it means to be an American.

Congo: Peacekeeping/Nationbuilding Done Right?

Writing for TNR Peter Beinhart contrasts the deteriorating effort in Afganistan and the abject failure of Iraq with the relative success of Congo. The difference? The UN has supposedly learned the lessons from past failures and the US discarded these lessons and decided to start from scratch.

Bundling (Linkage) in the Mid East

In its Daily Analysis CFR hypes up the idea of "bundling" initiatives in the Mid East. Personally it seems like a newer fancier way of saying "linkage" Henry K's preferred method of negotiation.

The Dollar's Slide

Visit the Council on Foreign Relations site long enough and sooner or later you'll on see "New CFR Books." Among those listed is Playing Monopoly with the Devil: Dollarization and Domestic Currencies in Developing Countries. I have not read it and probably won't get around to it but based on what the site says the author, Manuel Hinds, argues that developing countries should adopt the dollar for development. Not a terrible prescription actually. Both Hong Kong and Chile began their success stories with currency boards and no lesser an authority than Milton Friedman seemed to support the idea of currency boards in one of his later works, Money Mischief. Nonetheless with the dollar at its lowest point in 14 years against the sterling I can think of a better time for a book such as this be published. The Economist tries to make sense of the dollar's slide blaming a soft economy, the current account deficit, the burgeoning housing bust among other things.

LA Quick Hits: The Murdering Prez, Mayhem in Mex, Evo Wins and Chile Changes

Chistmas Has Been Cancelled in Vienna

There is a picture of me at the tender age of two sitting on Santa's lap, mouth wide open as I am obviously in mid-scream, eyes filled with tears and betraying a sense of terror, hair completely disheveled and my torso leaning foward as I try to escape the Santa's kung-fu grip around my hips. The photo has been the source of amusement for ages and I must confess that whatever trauma I felt that day pales in comparison to anything that Nicole Lascecki did to me in fifth grade. Apparently the Santa trauma is too much for childern to bear so the city luminaries of Vienna have banned St. Nick from Kindergartens.

Wednesday, November 29, 2006

Evo Wins! Land Reform Passes

In a shocking development three conservative senators broke ranks and joined Evo's call for land reform. The bill has passed and he has signed it. Needless to say he is jubilant but his opponents are still bitter - there is a strike scheduled for Friday.

A Review of Max Boot's Latest

I like Max Boot even though I don't think I agree with him that often. Savage Wars of Peace: Small Wars and the Rise of American Power was one of the most enjoyable reads in Foreign Policy yet I disagreed with it's idealist sentiment wholeheartedly. The New York Review of Books takes a look at his latest - War Made New and walks away unimpressed. Here is the closing paragraph:
Overall, I feel that Boot's focus on four separate and distinct military revolutions since 1500 is misleading. Change is pervasive and continual. Fixing on a few periods and aspects of military innovation, as he does, imposes far too tight a corset on the sprawling confusion of human affairs. By schematizing his story so drastically, he minimizes surprises and almost entirely overlooks the larger human setting—moral and intellectual as well as social and economic—within which wars are fought. Professional fighting men are not wholly autonomous and the perpetual social flux within which they, like everyone else, actually exist needs always to be taken into account when trying to understand their victories and defeats.

Brain Latell on Fidel's Final Words

Brian Latell, author of the very good After Fidel: The Inside Story of Castro's Regime and Cuba's Next Leader, reflects on what to expect to hear from Fidel - assuming he speaks again in public. Writing in the Latell Report of the Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies he declares:
But what would the man who has spoken more words on the public record than any human in history want to say? Recent rumors emanating from the island that he is experiencing a deathbed religious catharsis, possibly even repenting and recanting, seem wildly improbable. He has never during nearly forty-eight years of public life openly confessed to morally indefensible behavior or admitted to regrets about his treatment of others. All his life he has been incapable of introspection of any type in the presence of witnesses. So if he were in fact to rally and deliver another oration it would most likely resemble his two most recent ones, both of which were void of any personal or emotional content or policy initiatives.

LA Quick Hits:The Venezuelan Winner, No Fiesta for Fidel, Evo Justice,Correa's Latest and More Mexican Trouble

Buchanan: Putin the Patsy

Talk about youthful indiscretion. Voting in my first primary I was so upset with Bush 41's coddling of the Chinese after the Massacre of Innocents that I voted for Pat Buchanan in protest. It is stain on my conscience that I will never be able to cleanse. The sad thing is that there was once a time in which I though Buchanan made sense. Now he is saying that assasinated exile Litvinenko could not have been offed by Putin because it is too obvious. Instead Buchanan casts a suspicious eye towards someone named Goldfarb. What there were no Horowitzes or Goldbergs available? Can we all agree that Pat is a proto-facist and anti-semite?

Tuesday, November 28, 2006

Jorge Castaneda on Venezuelan Elections

The brutally blunt and perceptive Castaneda has a couple of things to say about Hugo in Newsweek International, specifically:
In a sense, this support might be perceived as a paradoxical condemnation of Chavez's policies: he likes the poor, which is why they support him, and he tries to help them with his social policies. But poverty has not really diminished in Venezuela since 2000, so the poor also remain extremely numerous. Like so many populists in Latin America, Hugo Chavez loves the poor as they are, and wants to keep them that way.
Castaneda also notes that Hugo could have some issues down the road:
Conversely, if Rosales ends up not more than 5 percentage points behind the president, the opposition's protests might have some effect. That's because Chavez has manipulated the system to benefit his candidacy: he's stacked the electoral authority with his own party people, he's largely stifled the opposition media and the government bought the U.S.-based electronic voting company that will tabulate the nationwide vote. Those factors, combined with a tight vote, could prompt the international groups —including The Carter Center, European Union and the Organization of American States —to declare that the election was illegitimate. Many of Chavez's opponents at home and abroad are hoping that scenario plays out .
Castaneda has a great deal more faith in the observers than I do.

Today in LA...

  • The very predictable NYT is assuring us that Ecuadorian prez-elect Raf Correa promises to be a moderate lefty, heck he admires the US and loves the Dems. The Dem loving comes by way of his admiration of useless economist John Kenneth Galbraith and his lack of interest in a free trade pact with US. Several sources stressed that we should ignore his Hugo loving but it is rather hard to so - first Correa expressed the hope of getting much, much closer to Hugo. Then there is the fact that he is following Hugo's footsteps. As the Herald notes Hugo first swipe at the US was ending counternarcotics operations and Correa is doing the same. Finally Hugo hated the idea of an Andean Community (CAN) for trade comprised of Peru, Bolivia, Colombia and Chile - so Correa has expressed his intention to do Hugo's bidding (en esp.) and leave and to go to Mercosur.
  • Mexican politics has taken a telenovelaish turn. The PRD kept saying that they were going to impede Calderon's inauguration on Dec 1 similar to the way they stopped Fox from delivering the Mexican version of the state of the union. This despite polling that the public would not support the disruption. Today PRD deputies with their commie (PT) buddies tried to take over the dais of the Congress of Deputies some PAN members got there and the result was a scuffle. Later in the evening a second charge also failed (en esp.). Needless to say Fox is cowering at a hotel in the DF. He tried the Cheney "undisclosed location" bit but failed miserably. He has pleaded with Calderon to relocate his inauguration, Calderon more of a man than Fox could ever hope to be has opted to go with the traditional ceremony.
  • Calderon rounded out his cabinet selections with a shot across the bow of the opposition and a headscratcher. The lefties have no love for the interior minister pick, Francisco Ramirez, the governor of Jalisco. As for the Foreign Minister post he selected Patricia Espinosa. I found it inspired that he tapped a woman for the post but would have expected someone of greater heft or importance to assume the post.
  • Evo says he will rule by edict (en esp.) if the Senate does not get it together and follow his lead.
  • Some of the most prominent leaders of the dissident movement in Cuba have called for the embargo to be loosened a bit. The hardliners in Miami are up in arms. Here's a newsflash for these geniuses - as I mentioned about two years ago the only thing stopping the lifting of the embargo is one guy and his veto pen. In two years he will be gone and God only knows who will be sitting in his place. Now is the time to reassess our strategy as it pertains to Cuba. If I were a conservative Cuban-American, and actually I am, I would seek to lift the embargo on my terms. It makes no sense to continue in this all or nothing gambit because in the end the hardliners could end up with zilch. It is up to them. I hope they come to realize the reality of their situation. I hope they come to realize that the country that has given them shelter, freedom and so much more is better served by trying a different tack with Cuba. It is about time that we put aside the personal issues and work for the greater good.
  • Norman Bailey has been picked to be mission manager for intelligence on Cuba and Venezuela.
  • Castro moved his b-day celebration to Dec 2 thinking he would be there. Now people aren't so sure. Hugo is not expected to make it due to the elections but let's see how cocky he feels. Hugo in Havana would mean that he is so sure of victory that he does not give three hoots about Venezuelans.
  • Chile and Colombia (en esp.) have signed a free trade pact.
  • Nicaragua's abortion ban which does not provide for any exceptions has claimed the life of a woman and her unborn child. Ironically the Sandinistas are the ones that pushed this measure to assuage any fears that the Church may have about its return to power.

Monday, November 27, 2006

Today in LA...

Saturday, November 25, 2006

Today in LA...

Friday, November 24, 2006

Screw the World I Only Have Time for LA

Thursday, November 23, 2006

Happy Kaplangiving

What would I do without Coming Anarchy? Well miss the latest offering from Robert Kaplan. His piece is about where realism and idealism meet. I for one am not nearly as generous as he is in defining the neo-isolationists as "hard-core realists." What does Thucydides, Machiavelli, Richelieu, Bismarck, Morgenthau and Kissinger have to do with the luminaries at the Coalition for a Realistic Foreign Policy. Seriously, would the geniuses at Cato support intervention for an all out assault on the US? You could nuke half of the country and they'd probably still waffle. I say this despite the fact that I agree with Cato on practically everything else. Back to Kaplan - for those that think that interventionism is a thing of the past he has a few choice words:
This is nonsense. Our foreign policy is about to experience an adjustment, not a flip-flop. Neither political party will support anything else if it really wants to elect a president in 2008. Just look at the dismay in this country over our failure to intervene in Darfur, even given the burden we already carry in Iraq. To be sure, the recent evidence that our democratic system cannot be violently exported will temper our Wilsonian principles, but it will not bury them. Pure realism -- without a hint of optimism or idealism -- would immobilize our mass immigrant democracy, which has always seen itself as an agent of change.
He adds:
The lesson is not that we won't intervene again. We will, and often. But we will do so with the caution and hesitation shown in the 1990s and only as part of an authentic coalition. To wit, just as NATO's war in Kosovo had a British face and voice -- that of its spokesman, Jamie Shea -- any intervention in North Korea (should it ever come to that) will put the South Korean military front and center and will have the implicit cooperation of the Chinese army. Otherwise, we won't do it.
He closes with an appeal for a realism with idealism. Something I like to call Reaganism, but that's just me:

The debacle in Iraq has reinforced the realist dictum, disparaged by idealists in the 1990s, that the legacies of geography, history and culture really do set limits on what can be accomplished in any given place. But the experience in the Balkans reinforced an idealist dictum that is equally true: One should always work near the limits of what is possible rather than cynically give up on any place. In this decade idealists went too far; in the previous one, it was realists who did not go far enough.

Iraq has relegitimized realism, which is a good thing. But without an idealistic component to our foreign policy, there would be nothing to distinguish us from our competitors. And that, in and of itself, would lead to the decline of American power.

...and the World

Today in LA...

  • Colombia and the US have signed a new trade pact but its prospects are dim now that the Dems are coming over. WaPost touches on increasing nervousness in LA over the new Dem Congress. Personally I think it is a nefarious Dem plot to secure electoral victories in perpetuity. Here's how it goes - nix free trade down south sinking economies and boosting unemployment. This then encourages people to jump the border to the US, stand up for the illegals and promise them the world, ensure the right to driver's licenses and allow lax enforcement of motor voter and viola - a Dem Majority!
  • LAT has a good and depressing piece on the collapse of civil society in northern Mexico specifically Nuevo Laredo. The pusillanimous Fox Admin took years to address the violence and its only significant measure - sending in federal cops - has since been rescinded. At the HoustonChron a death of a local cacique in Acayucan demonstrates that violence in Mexico is not exclusive to the border towns.
  • NYT is a bit late on the news that the completely worthless Fox Admin waited until the 11th hour to put out an 800 page report detailing what everyone already knew - that three former presidents had used violence, torture and murder to subdue dissidents and enemies. Only one is still alive and genocide charges against him were thrown out when a judge ruled that the statute of limitations had expired.
  • Both the OAS and the EUnuchs will have observers present for the Venezuelan elections. Even worse news - the Carter Center will be there too.
  • 17 cents a gallon! Holy crap! That is what Venezuelans pay for gas and apparently that is not going to change anytime soon since left, right and center all agree that this is a good thing. Of course this creates inefficiencies and costs the government billions in lost revenue but that's LA for ya.
  • The Herald reports on an effort to boost Nicaragua's economy; the Millennium Challenge Corporation is funding it.
  • Let's get this party started right/ Let's get this party started quickly - lame ass hit but proper sentiment to the rumors that Castro is not in good shape. Trust me if he croaks you'll want to be in Miami for the party.
  • The opposition to Evo in the Bolivian Senate is promising to boycott in the hopes of stalling some of his "reforms." Evo is ticked.

China Time: Blame it Dr. J.

One of my favorite profs at the U was a noted sinologist. Because of her I remain fascinated with developments in Red China and Taipei. By the way if you want to keep abreast of trends in China check out the Jamestown Foundation's China Brief. The latest issue covers Beijing's Human Rights Exhibit (it would be hilarious if it weren't so sad); the frightening maturation of the PLAN (Peoples Liberation Army Navy) and the wooing of ASEAN nations by the Reds. A recent issue of TNI (The National Interest) touched on the Red's growing influence at Turtle Bay.

Over in Taipei the heat is growing on Chen and observers are freaking that he may do something desperate - like a referendum on independence. I'm surprised that KMT would be so high on dumping him. Seriously would Annette Lu really make things better for them. Ms. Lu is a rhetorical bombthrower who is bound to rile the Reds.

Jimmy at the Vatican?

My use of dated urban slang is rather lame but there is nothing lame about the Vatican thinking about giving the ok for condoms. I have no idea what I meant with that witless turn of phrase but I am as tired as this post.

Tuesday, November 21, 2006

In the Tanks: al Qaeda Lives!, Rwanda Rules!, Kagan Konspiracy and Ali Bumaye!

Jamestown Foundation's Terrorism Focus reports on the discovery of al Qaeda "support rings" in Europe. There is also a growing al Qaeda threat in India.

Over at the American Enterprise Institute you can read about Rwanda's rebound and Fredrick Kagan on either ramping up or ramping out of Iraq - there is no viable middle ground. Speaking of the infamous Kagan clan I've started Robert Kagan's Dangerous Nation and while not exactly on par with his groundbreaking Of Paradise and Power it is an intriguing work with a rather unique perspective. It is also pretty well written.

The controversial Ayann Hirsi Ali also finds herself at AEI and her latest speech is posted on their site.

The Mags: Foreign Bargain, Commentary's Facelift, American Dream

Foreign Policy may not be my favorite mag but they do have quite a deal going on for the holidays. While the mag may not get a rave from me the FP site and blog are both must reads.

Neo-con central, aka as Commentary, has a new look and it is a vast improvement over the old. Check it out no matter your stripe Commentary is always interesting. In the latest issue Amir Taheri wants to get serious about Iran. In the last FP neo-con Joshua Muravchik propsed getting a whole lot more serious.

Being a James Glassman fan I find it hard to believe that I had not heard of The American, a new magazine of ideas and business. Glassman has long been in the vanguard exploring issues that affect business, society, science and culture and this promises to be much of the same. I wish them well and will subscribe as soon as I can figure out a way to hide the fact from my wife that I have paid for yet another magazine that I will never get around to reading.

Mexican Stuff: el Rayito as Prez, Inane Ramblings, Milking It and Calderon's Eco Team

The Tropical Messiah (en esp.) doing his best Napoleonic impersonation crowned himself President of Mexico. This despite losing the election in July and his own home state of Tabasco rejecting his pick for governor. No surprise then that he scampered back to the DF to be inaugurated before his loving throng in the Zocalo, the central plaza in Mexico City. Both NYTimes and LATimes have stories with LAT doing a much better job filling in the gaps and providing background. No surprise there - those with a long memory may recall that the NYTimes went so far as to endorse AMLO's candidacy and kept pumping him up while he sought to scuttle the still nascent democratic institutions of Mexico and usurp the Constitution.

LAT went so far as to get a quote from Denise Dresser co-author of the Mexican version of Jon Stewart's best-selling America (The Book). I know I'm off on a tangent but I have to justify my L. American cred. Well that and her co-author is the brilliant novelist Jorge Volpi (bio's a little dated - he now has his own magazine) Since I am already off-topic I should mention that Volpi's latest, the conclusion of his 20th Century trilogy, No sera la tierra, is out now.

Back to Mexico - the papers therefrom the right, left and center gave the AMLO circus the front page but have already moved on to more pressing issues. Of greater import is the recent announcment of the Fox government to raise the price of milk and gas. Milk will go up a peso from 3.50 to 4.50. The Congress of Deputies backed a motion pleading with Los Pinos to reconsider. Don't count on it and considering the tradition of end of sexenio surprises this is nothing. Sexenio surprises were the inevitable byproduct of corrupt PRI governments artificially pumping up the economy to secure electoral victories. Once the election was over bills would come due and collapse would soon follow. Zedillo managed not to drop one on Fox, but Mexicans must remember that Salinas' mess lead to Zedillo's devaluation of the peso and a US bailout.

Last and far from least Calderon may be busy deflecting criticism that Fox is doing his bidding by raising milk and gas prices now but he hasn't been so busy that he can't announce his economic team. Agustín Carstens, who got his PhD at the U of Chicago, has been tapped to head the Finance Ministry. Somewhere Uncle Milty must be smiling. Kudos to the Dallas Morning Herald.

TMX

I've got mine do you have yours? By the way more than willing to part with mine for the right price...Before you beat me up to bad, we have an extra. You didn't think I'd tear it away from my boy's arms, did you?

The Reason


Actually I have not written because I am lazy but this little guy has given me an excuse time and time again to push away the keyboard and find something else to do. I wish I could say I regret that but I don't.

I'm Back

I deserve all the grief that I can take from my friends and once faithful readers. I find myself with the same name and in a different locale. I loved getting International-Views off the ground but I found it too restricting. It was meant to be an open forum and although I did interject my own opinions it was meant to be an informative site for members of a reading group. I found this a tad too restrictive although the group always encouraged me to speak my mind.

So here I am. I don't think that I will change much. I'll still ramble about things I know nothing about with the desperate attempt to sway the feeble minded. Ultimately I will try to focus on Latin America since it is what I supposedly know best. This seems unlikely however since my interests are too broad and varied to stick to one part of the globe particularly one so dysfunctional and infruriating.

Thanks again for looking me up.