Lies, Damned Lies and Bolivarian Lies

Francisco Rodriguez from the libertarian Independent Institute throws cold water on the idea that Chavez's social programs are actually helping the poor:

Despite these realities, government officials routinely make sweeping claims about the success of their social programs—claims that are commonly taken at face value by international public opinion. Consider, for example, the government’s official declaration of Venezuela as an “illiteracy-free territory” on October 28, 2005, when it announced that the Cuban-designed Misión Robinson literacy program had succeeded in teaching 1.5 million Venezuelans how to read and write in just over two years. Some of the highest-ranking representatives of international bodies and foreign governments, including Spanish president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero and UNESCO director general Koichiro Matsuura, voiced their recognition and approval of this supposed achievement.

Given the extensive academic literature documenting the very low success rates of large-scale literacy programs, one would have expected a little more skepticism. Even a cursory look at the government’s figures will reveal deep inconsistencies in the official story. For starters, it seems awfully difficult to teach 1.5 million people how to read and write given that, according to the 2001 census, there were only 1.08 million illiterate persons in Venezuela. Indeed, the number of illiterate Venezuelans has never exceeded 1.5 million adults since the nation started collecting statistics in 1936. The government also claimed to have mobilized 1.8 percent of the country’s labor force as paid trainers in the program. The problem is that official employment statistics show no evidence that these trainers were ever employed and official budget figures show no evidence that they were ever paid.

In a recent paper I co-authored with Daniel Ortega and Edward Miguel, I used the raw data files of the Venezuelan National Institute of Statistics’ Household Surveys to estimate literacy rates in Venezuela during the period that the Robinson program was implemented. Our results show no evidence of the dramatic reduction in illiteracy claimed by the Venezuelan government. According to our estimates, in the second half of 2005—the first period after the government declaration regarding the eradication of illiteracy—there were still 1,014,441 illiterate Venezuelans over age 15, only slightly less than the 1,107,793 illiterate people registered during the first half of 2003 (before Robinson began). The statistical analysis carried out in our paper shows that most of this absolute decline in the number of illiterate Venezuelans can be traced to changes in the age structure rather than to any effect of the government’s literacy program.