Which Left is Winning?

I kind of like Alvaro Vargas Llosa. No, he does not posses his father's talents nor is he nuanced in his views and yes Liberty in Latin America, despite the promising title, was a painful read but Alvaro's heart is in the right place. Incidentally Liberty in Latin America is so bad that it almost made me a Chavista (just kidding). In a recent piece Alvaro notes that there have been 12 elections and 12 months and while the left is obviously winning, it is not clear which left is clearly ahead. More interesting to me is his take on the post-Fidel outlook in Cuba and Venezuela's role:

Will next year bring a change to the balance of power that seems to exist between the carnivores and the vegetarians? One factor could alter this balance of power: Cuba after Fidel. With the Maximo Lider on his way out, Chavez will assume, probably next year, the definitive leadership of the carnivores. But it is by no means a foregone conclusion that he will dictate the terms of the new Cuba.

His relationship with Raul Castro is tense. Yes, he has important allies, notably Cuban Vice President Carlos Lage, who hinted sometime ago at creating a confederation of the two countries with Chavez as president. But other “apparatchiks” resent his intrusion and are beginning to develop nationalistic sentiments that could well limit Venezuela’s influence after Fidel dies.

Castro “made” Chavez by anointing him his continental heir and helping him set up a powerful political structure a well as the foundations of the social aid network through which the Venezuelan government has made itself indispensable for large numbers of poor people. The symbolism of Cuba turning away from Venezuela would be powerful enough to do what three severe setbacks Chavez suffered in 2006—the Peruvian elections, the Mexican elections, and Venezuela’s failure to win the Latin American seat at the U.N. Security Council—did not quite achieve: bringing his regional projection back to modest proportions.

All this is quite interesting but a radical swing either towards or away from Venezuela is unlikely. One of Fidel's most trusty weapons in his bag of tricks is nationalism. There is no way that you could sell the Cuban people on a confederation with Venezuela taking the lead. Of course Raul is testy once it comes to Chavez, he recognizes the latter's obsession with succeeding Fidel in the international stage. As for Lage lining up on the opposite end that is no surprise considering that he has illusions/delusions of his own. With no internal power base to match Raul's he needs to turn to the outside for support

As for turning away that is just as unlikely. Venezuela gives Cuba too much in terms of fuel. Cuba now owes Venezuela - so much that it can't just ignore Chavez. With the only other major benefactor in the region being the US Raul is in a tough spot. I would imagine the savier Castro bro triangulating between the two extremes.