LA Quick Hits: Cochabamba Clash, MAS Scrap, Correa/Uribe Talk, Peron Lives, Hugo Helps Danny, Human Rights Watch Wakes Up & More

• Violence broke out again in Cochabamba yesterday leaving two dead.
  
• Evo's MAS (Movement Towards Socialism) is threatening to scrap the Constitutional Assembly. Evo had previously threatened to impose his reforms by edict if this happened.
  
• Correa is touting the successful dialogue that he had with Uribe (en esp.) concerning the spraying on the border.
  
• Isabel Peron, the former president and the strongman's widow, has an arrest order for her from an Argentine judge. This stems from accusations made about her role of the disappearance of a leftist during the "Dirty War." Peron lives in Spain.
• Nicaragua has signed a couple of pacts with Venezuela to take advantage of the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA). (en esp.) This is Hugo's version of what we call the FTAA but that our Spanish speaking neighbors refer to as ALCA. Danny's deal gets him a refinery and housing.
• FT has an incredibly tepid op-ed on Hugo's "Left Turn."
• Oppo leader Manuel Rosales said that Hugo wants to perpetuate his reign - I'm glad he told me because I never would have guessed. (en esp.)
• Human Rights Watch rips Hugo for stacking courts and destroying the independent judiciary.
• Human Rights Watch also expressed disappointment over the new and improved UN Commission on Human Rights. I can't believe that it took them this long to realize that the reformed commission is barely an improvement over its previous incarnation. The whole thing should be scrapped - obviously the UN is beyond being an effective defender of Human Rights.
• Cubans paid homage to deceased dissident Miguel Valdes Tamayo. Tamayo died at 50 of a heart attack.
• Posada Carriles has been indicted for lying...that's like saying he has been indicted for breathing. I've said before and I'll say it again - if Posada would have kept his mouth shut and laid low no one would have bothered him. Unfortunately ego, delusions of his supporters and the cloistered hardline Cuban exile community allowed the genius to stage a grand press conference drawing attention to him and his cronies. The US gov't had to act then. The man got what he deserved.
• The UN is looking to help Monterrey Mex with its drug war.
  

LA Quick Hits:

• Both Hugo and Danny were inaugurated yesterday. Hugo was so excited that he hurriedly flew off to Managua to see the once and future commandante get sworn in.
• Hugo continued in his quest to scare the bejeezus out of everyone. Chavez wants to introduce a constitutional amendment that would extend his rule. He brushed off concerns over the historic stock market plunge in Caracas, declared during his swearing in that Jesus Christ was the greatest socialist of all time and mixed Fidel's closings and used them as his own.
• The Herald has a confusing piece. At first noting that some Venezuelans are scared but that the changes being sought will just bring back a status quo to the 70's and 80's. This is outrageous - even NYT didn't go that far. One things for sure Venezuelans expats are freaked out .
  
• An LAT op-ed takes a look at Venezula's future and is less than optimistic about its prospects.
• Even the Brazilian press is scared of Hugo. (en esp.)
  
• Danny's inauguration was more of a mixed bag. Before he had a chance to give his speech Hugo was already hogging up the spotlight by presenting him with a sword and babbling on about Danny being one of history's indispensable figures. Then Danny went on to rip neo-liberalism, his hope to combat poverty but he also went on to assuage fears that he'll swing hard left. FT says Danny has his work cut out for him.
  
• Feeling a tad overlooked in all this Evo reminded anyone who would listen that he plans to nationalize the mining industry this year. (en esp.)
• Five governors in Bolivia issued a statement declaring that Evo practices "state terrorism." (en esp.) They issued this in support of their beleagured collegue in Cochabamba.
• The Herald ruins a good op-ed about the situation in Bolivia with a wishy-washy conclusion asking for compromise from the warring factions there.
• As if this weren't enough fun the news out of Caracas is that Iranian Prez will be visiting Venezuela, Nicaragua and Ecuador next Saturday. (en esp.)
  
• The resurfacing of Castro cronies that purged cultural circles in Cuba during the 60's and 70's has intellectuals on the island upset. That's their problem for living within the system - I personally don't care.
• Cuba is upset about restitution being paid out from frozen assets.
• Mexican troops are on their way to Acapulco - and it's not for a vacation.
• AG Albert Gonzalez asked for patience as Mexico fights the drug war for us. Ok, I added that last part.

Back in Cochabamba

Jim Shultz from Blog from Bolivia is talking about Cochabamba again. Here is his closing:

Today's march, unlike yesterday’s, resulted in no burned buildings (the outside of the governor’s office is all smoke stains and broken windows) and no gassing. It is important to note that, according to everyone I spoke with who was actually there yesterday, the police clearly started firing gas on a peaceful protest and the assault on the state building was an angry reaction. In addition to the march in the city center, protesters have also begun to blockade the highways in and out of town.

Watching it all I couldn’t help feel like the whole scene was about regular people, on both sides, being caught up in a game of political chess not of their making. All of this is about a power struggle between politicians at the highest level. Morales and MAS are fed up with the demand that a minority be given veto power over every procedural move in a Constituent Assembly that is utterly stalled. Manfred Reyes Villa wanted to get in the national political game and did so by allying himself with the anti-Evo forces of the nation’s eastern departments.

Looked at coldly, as political chess, it is easy to wonder whether Ryes Villa looked even a move or two ahead. Even though he played a central role in the water privatization here seven years ago (as Mayor he signed the local water company’s authorization of the , Reyes Villa has never been the target of the social movements that are so powerful here. Not until now.

A month ago he was happily governing his region utterly above the fray of the national political battle over the Assembly. A month ago he looked like a future president just waiting for his moment down the road. The people of Cochabamba voted by an overwhelming 63% against regional autonomy when it was on the ballot six months ago. Why Manfred set out to make himself a champion of what his voters so soundly rejected is anyone’s guess.

Today he has thousands of angry constituents demanding his resignation. And while some observers might say – he benefits from this, he looks like a victim of MAS strong-arming – there is one other rule in politics, be it in Bolivia or anywhere else. Having that many people so pissed off at you that they shut down a city to get you out of office, that isn’t where you want to be.

Latin Americanist Makes Me Feel Guilty

After ripping them for using them Prensa Libre, 3 of the next 4 posts have had links to FoxNews.com.

What's at Stake in Bolivia?

Carlos Sabino from the libertarian Independent Institute tries to explain what is so important about what is going on in Bolivia:

What's at stake today in this Andean nation is nothing less than a continental expansion of socialism devised by Hugo Chávez, who has picked up the banner of the Cuban Revolution. If the Bolivians give in to President Morales, they will find themselves living in a foregin-supported tyranny, stripped of their freedom. Democracy will become a simple facade, behind which the worst abuses will be committed. If they struggle on, as everything seems to indicate, the tensions will continue and very possibly lead to violence.

The nations in our region still do not understand that governments like Chávez's and Evo Morales' are a real threat to peace in Latin America as a whole. The fact that Morales won by a temporary popular majority does not mean that all his actions—some of which are openly destabilizing—should be accepted or that his ambitions of imposing his outdated political models on all neighboring countries should be tolerated. Let us hope those nations will soon see the light, before violence erupts in the heart of our continent.

Babalu Before Sunrise

I was wrong (savor that for a moment because it does not happen often) I said Babula Blog would nail Oscar Corral before sun up. Well sun up came and went at 7:09 but Val @ Babalu did not get around to it until 7:14.

LA Quick Hits: The Hugo Effect, Evo Destruction, Insulted Insulza, The AMLO Show, Babalu Bash & More

• The markets respond to Hugo's nationalization plans with a freefall. The Carcas exchanged dropped almost 19% and the street value of the bolivar plumetted to almost half its previous value. The Hugo effect also nailed other LA markets with Argentina, Mexico and Brazil registering almost 2% losses or more. I would imagine Mexico will bounce back relatively quickly with Argentina and Brazil trailing but recovering too. It is unlikely that any of them will follow Hugo. I'm sure that investors in the Hugo alliance (Ecuador, Bolivia and maybe Nicaragua) will think twice before fronting more money. If nationalization goes through the US is expecting compensation but as far as I'm concerned they don't deserve it. I am incredulous at investors who are shocked that this is happening quicker than they thought. Does that mean that they expected it to happen anyway and were hoping he just took his time. These companies deserve what they got.
• CSM has an overview of what is going down in Venezuela.
• Evo lovers are making a mess in Cochabomba - they are hoping to oust the anti-Evo gov. Blog from Bolivia thinks this is unlikely and unproductive.
• The Cuban dissident in Bolivia has been deported to Colombia. Sure the US helped, via the UN, (en esp.) but why wouldn't we take him?
• Ecuador cried to the OAS yesterday (en esp.) about Colombia's border spraying.
• OAS members backed Insulza (en esp.) after Hugo's tirade.
• The AMLO show had it's premiere - the paid infomercial ripped Calderon's anti-crime initiative and proposed a law to break up "monpolies." God idea! Let's start with PEMEX!
• I can't defend Oscar Corral this time...he trots out the old boring story that we've heard a thousand times - that travel restrictions and the embargo divide the Cuban exile community. I can recite that crap in my sleep. This piece will get ripped on Babalu before sun up.
  
• This is a shock - Mexico extradited a murder suspect back to the US. I doubt we waived the possibility of the death penalty.
• There are now "only" 333 dissidents in jail in Cuba. Newsflash - the entire friggin' island is a jail.
• More Cuban doctor stuff. How can you beat propoganda like that? Perhaps by doing some of it yourself. It's certainly cheaper than funding crop eradication and it makes someone happy.
• In case anyone was wondering ETA confirmed that they bombed Madrid...oh and by the way the ceasefire is still on. Go ahead Zapatero - take the bait.
  

LA Quick Hits: Coming Through For the Kids, Evo Haters and Lovers, Tijuana Gets NO Love & More

• Calderon is making good on his promise to cover health insurance for all kids born during his sexenio.
• Bush thinks he can get along with Ortega - he wants to reach out.
• Evo haters have become increasingly wary of the increased Venezuelan military presence.
• Evo lovers in Cochamamba, scared that the ruling gov is going to ask for autonomy, went crazy and rioted.
• Former Chelean Prezes claim that they never indulged in gifts offered to them.
• Tijuana policeman are threatend with death threats via phone.
  

LA Quick Hits: The Hugo Edition - 21st Century Trotskyism, Orinoco Flow or Lack Thereof, How to Say "Mother F' Idiot in Spanish & More

We're splitting Quick Hits in two today because Hugo made too much news yesterday:

• Hugo's 21st Century Socialism looks a lot like 20th century communism to me. Hugo swore in his 27 cabinet ministers yesterday and then Hugo announced plans to nationalize the country's electrical and telecommunications industries, end the independence of the central bank and expand his powers. WaPost reports that AES Corp. of Virginia, which holds and 86% stake in the largest private utility in the country is going to take a massive hit. In 2005 the firm made $613 million from Venezuela and lists the value of its assets in the country at $1.85 billion. WaPost also notes the importance of the ousting of Rangel, who had his own power base independent of Hugo. As I mentioned previously this move is reminiscent of Fidel purging the Cuban gov't as he concentrated his power. The ousting of Huber Matos, disappearance of Camilo and the exporting of Che were just the most obvious examples of his quest for undiluted power.
• HoustonChron highlights Hugo's threat to become more involved in the heavy oil Orinoco projects. The Chron notes that "Since the late 1990s, Houston-based ConocoPhillips, Exxon Mobil, Chevron Texaco and other firms have invested more than $17 billion into four major ventures in the vital Orinoco basin of eastern Venezuela." The Chron notices the Fidel parallel.
• LAT reports that 1/5 of Venezuela's oil production comes from Orinoco.
• All this talk of Orinoco has me thinking of Enya.
• The Herald points out that Hugo referred to himself as Trotskyist in a sense and that he closed his speech by using Fidel's tired closing, "Patria o muerte!," (The Fatherland or death!). Not mentioned is that he mixed it with a line from Che which everyone in LA would recognize.
• NYT predicatably downplays Hugo's moves in the headline but the story is comprehensive and good. Hugo's second most memorable quote of the day, "All that was privatized, let it be nationalized." is mentioned as is a very polite translation of the most popular quote of the day, which I will get into later.
• FT does a good job covering the business angle of the moves. They also analyze how the moves will affect petrol companies and the telecoms, specifically Verizon . FT also explains why this was a surprise (the incoming Fin. Minister didn't give a hint) and again another explanation of the booting of Rangel.
• As for the most memorable quote Hugo referred to OAS head Insulza as a "pendejo" and asked him to resign. (en esp.) No for the non-Spanish speaking audience out there it is impossible for any translation to English to do this word justice. The beauty of Spanish is the crudity implicit in most of its insults. Trust me that ripping someone in Spanish is a great deal more satisfying than in English. As for Hugo's choice of words, NYT noted that it can be translated to "idiot" but it is more honest to say that it means "stupid mother f****** idiot." or just use the crude word associated with the part of the female anatomy located below the waist.

WoooooHoooooo!!!! VCrisis is Back

The best site to keep up on what is going on in Venezuela has returned. Blogger Alek Boyd succumbed to the obligatory blogging blues - it's not that hard get hit with them. You start thinking noboday cares, nobody reads, you pour your heart out and nothing changes. Fortunately Hugo ticked Alek off enough today to shake him from his stupor and send him scurrying back to the keyboard. Welcome back Alek!

Latin Americanist Breaks a Streak

Previously I mentioned being annoyed with The Latin Americanist for a string of posts using Prensa Latina, the official governmental news agency, as a source. The next post, two days later did not link to Prensa Latina but instead went to a story on the FoxNews site - talk about schizophrenia.

A Great Idea Going Nowhere

Former US Trade Rep Robert Zoellick thinks that we should throw together our disparate Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) into one pot and create the Association of American Free Trade Agreements. I like it and it sounds great but some of the FTAs mentioned are, as he mentions, not yet ratified. In WSJ Zoellick outlines the benefits of the AAFTA and the dangers of not acting:

The AAFTA would draw together these 13 partners to build on the gains of free trade. It could also include the island states of the Caribbean Basin Trade Partnership Act. Starting with a small secretariat, perhaps in Miami, the AAFTA should advance hemispheric economic integration; link development and democracy with trade and aid; improve working and environmental conditions; and continue to pursue the goal of free trade throughout the hemisphere. It might even foster cooperation in the WTO's global trade negotiations. The AAFTA might be connected to an academic center, which could combine research and practice through an association among universities in the Americas.

The AAFTA could promote the business of trade by helping the private sector learn how to use FTAs, while encouraging business feedback that identifies impediments -- such as customs complications, regulatory red tape, the lack of financial, energy or other services, and infrastructure problems. It might use technology to create a virtual network of business opportunities, especially for small business.

Moreover the AAFTA should concretely demonstrate how aid and trade can be mutually supportive. U.S. Millennium Challenge Corporation grants are already enabling Central American countries to invest in physical and legal infrastructure matched to trade expansion. The U.S. Overseas Private Investment Corporation, Ex-Im Bank and Trade and Development Agency programs could be integrated, too. AID projects for labor and the environment could promote core standards, best practices, benchmarking and corporate social responsibility projects. The Inter-American Development Bank, a leader in connecting aid and trade, might help with grants and loans to strengthen small business, the economic empowerment of indigenous communities, and education -- all connected to open societies in a global economy. Finally, over time the AAFTA partners might examine how the various FTAs could be knitted together, although these steps would likely require new congressional action.

The U.S. cannot afford to lose interest in its own neighborhood. The pied pipers of populism in Latin America are taking advantage of the genuine frustrations, especially in indigenous communities, of people who have not been able to climb the ladder of opportunity. We should not let these populists dictate the debate. We already have seen that electorates in Mexico, Colombia, Peru, Central America and the Dominican Republic have recognized that trade with the U.S. offers jobs and hope. We need to build on that foundation with results that link trade, aid, good governance, property rights and better working and environmental conditions. Even where populists prevailed, substantial constituencies who view the U.S. as an economic partner have constrained backward policies.

I agree with Zoellick wholeheartedly but he is on crack if he thinks the Dems are going to buy any of this. To lose interest in our "neighborhood" would have meant having interest in the first place. We all know that the only country south of the border that Rangel is interested in having any sort of trade with is Cuba. Let's plan and hope that Zoellick's vision gains traction because it is the vision of a free and prosperous hemisphere.

I've Been Meaning to Say That - The Ridiculous Drug War

It is so frustrating day after day reading papers from all over the hemisphere and seeing (reading about) the bodies piling up. I have reached the point where if I am rushed I will ignore any drug killing or cartel corruption story. What angers me most about every narco story is that there we are, the 2 ton elephant in the room that is occaisionally brought out but is more often than not hidden somewhere stage left. That 2 ton elephant is US and our drug policy. A policy that forces other nations to make the difficult decisions. A policy that forces nations with weak institutions and other pressing needs to make our problem their primary concern. It is shameful that the wealthiest nation on the planet should prey on its neighbors in such a manner. We have the drug problem, not Colombia, Peru, Bolivia or Mexico. If there wasn't demand there wouldn't be supply.

Mary Anastacia O'Grady touches on this theme while discussing Evo's plans for Bolivia in todays WSJ. She recaps a lot that I have already linked to here but also discusses Evo's trump card when dealing with the oppo.

Here is O'Grady:

Mr. Chávez had oil revenues to keep the masses happy while he put a noose around democracy. But Evo isn't so fortunate and he can't push through a constitutional coup without popular backing. So to generate support he has relied heavily on his defense of coca growers against a U.S. policy that presses countries in Latin America to destroy their crops.

O'Grady has a great idea on how to short-fuse Evo's radical programs:

Mr. Morales, who badly needs to maintain the appearance of public support so that the international community tolerates his takeover, had to be embarrassed by this outpouring of democratic opposition. He is trying to spin the constitutional crisis as a confrontation between races and economic classes. But he has to worry about places like the poor and largely indigenous city of El Alto, just above La Paz, where there is evidence to suggest that many who voted for him are unhappy with his unlawful intervention in the constitutional process and growing impatient with his failure to deliver on economic promises.

This is where U.S. drug policy comes in. Railing against the Yankees who want to destroy peasant income has proven extremely effective in keeping the Morales base -- the country's indigenous coca growers who brought him to power -- energized and his numbers afloat.

He reaffirmed this last month. As his opposition swelled he suddenly announced that he would authorize a near doubling of the number of hectares that may legally produce coca. Then last week he inaugurated a coca industrialization plant in the province of Cochabamba, financed by his government along with Cuba and Venezuela. According to press reports, Mr. Morales told the Cochabamba crowd that coca "never killed anyone" and that the U.S. "should have a law to do away with drug addicts."

Mr. Morales shouldn't wish too hard for that. If Washington policy makers ever decide to tackle the demand for cocaine and stop blaming supply, Mr. Morales's political career would be in jeopardy.

LA Quick Hits: Calderon's Crackdown (Again), Hugo Helps, Mex Cartels Spread, Falklands or Malvinas?, Spanish Non-Killers & Some More

• I've been avoiding this one - Cindy Sheehan is in Cuba and in addition to closing up Guantanamo she wants us to lift the embargo. I avoided this because Sheehan is like the Paris Hilton of the loony lefty set - she has no substance and doesn't do anything except show up everywhere.
• The San Antonio Express-News has an op-ed praising Calderon's crackdown.
• Cardinal Rivera from Mex says force will not be enough in the drug war in Mex.
  
• Telenovelas are over the top and melodramatic - much like Mexicans. I say this with affection and because it is the truth. The powerful family that runs the El Norte paper has a fight that pits father against his sons and his own mother.
  
• The Herald has a story on the powerful Araujo clan, its ties ties to Uribe and its ties to the right wing "paras."
• Hugo is setting up to unveil a huge aid package to "help" Nicaragua. Details will be known Thursday. Hugo is waiting till Danny Ortega is officially inaugurated.
  
• There was a time that the Mexican cartels were the week step-sisters of the illicit universe now they are becoming the strongest. An excellent DME relates how Mexican cartels spreading their influence in Peru.
• A police patrol was ambushed in Monterrey leaving one officer dead and another injured.
• 25 years after war the Falklands/Malvinas dispute lingers.
  
• Apparently the long held belief that diseases introduced by Spaniards killed off the indians is being challenged - much to the horror of some Mex historians.
  

LA Quick Hits Special Sun. Edition: Calderon's Crackdown, Venezuela v. OAS, Cheap Chileans?, Getting Ugly American Style & Much More

Yeah I know it's Sunday but here I am:

• NYT reports on the Calderon crack-down. I will lay my biases right on the table I don't like NYT's James McKinley Jr. He has a difficulty with his own biases unfortunately he has a problem acknowledging his. He's not exactly Walter Duranty or Herbert Matthews but he still leaves me feeling dirty. It isn't so much what he says but how he says things. He begins his story by saying Calderon's campaign had promised to focus on jobs but he was focusing on something else security. Calderon has been beating the security drum since before his inauguration when violence escalated throughout the border towns and even Monterrey. He then casts the move of unarming the Tijuana police as a move motivated by suspicious federal officials and raising concerns of anarchy in Tijuana. First of all federal gov't officials are not the only people who "think" that the Tijuana police is corrupt. The general populace and basically the rest of the country know that elements if not most of the Tijuana police is corrupt or open to corruption. As for the charge of anarchy no story emanating from Tijuana reflected this view until McKinley threw it out there. If anything the people of Tijuana were thrilled at the disarmament of it's police force. McKinley also fails to mention that the police returned to patroling the streets of Tijuana
  
• A more balanced assesment of Calderon's drug fight can be found in the HoustonChron. The cold hard fact is that Calderon has no choice but to use the military, but the military alone is not the answer.
  
• LAT notes that roads used by Tijuana smugglers have been effectively cleaned out by Mexican troops.
• Venezuela demands that the OAS Gen-Sec take back his comments.
  
• A prison riot in El Salvador leaves 17 dead.
  
• The other ETA victim returns home.
• 31 dead in Brazilian mudslide.
• Evo is blasted by oppo leader Jorge Quiroga for Venezuelan military involvement in Ecuador. (en esp).
  
• Rising copper prices have got some Chileans eager to spend on public goods.
  
• NYT has a story on how "Ugly Betty" changed when she came to America. Actually she changed when she went to Mexico too. Let me just state for the record that my knowledge of telenovelas was forced upon me.
• NYT notes the rather odd name choices used by Venezuelans.
  
• Further proof that the Herald sucks - I've noticed that my local paper has tendency to recycle old stories from other papers on Sunday. This week they publish a story on a cactus factory run by Oaxacan women that I linked to on December 27.
  

LA Quick Hits Special Sat. Edition: Tijuana, Castro Will Die, Kirchner Haters, Norgie Nastiness, Mexican Mess, AMLO Returns, Lots of Hugo & Much More

Obviously I have nothing else better to do this morning-

• Surprising smackdown of Hugo by OAS Sec Gen Jose Miguel Insuza. He rips the Bolivarian Bully for shutting down RCTV - Venezuela's most popular network.
  
• The Tijuana police are back at "work." I say "work" because many believe that Tijuana cops do extra work for dealers and cartels. The public at large is thrilled that their guns have been taken away. The HoustonChron and NYT got the news late.
• US officials still believe that Castro will kick the bucket soon although they did stay away from the word "cancer."
• Huge controversy in Norge over Cuban officials not being allowed to stay in a hotel owned by Hilton. Now I may not like the embargo but it is the law of our land so the Norgies should kick back have one of those disgusting akvavits and relax.
• Kirchner's unannounced re-election bid is drawing candidates. Carlos Menem, oblivious to his staggering unpopularity is giving it another go. Also running is Roberto Lavgna, the economy minister who helped Argentina back on its feet and was unceremoniously dumped by Kirchner once his job was done. This is called pulling a Domingo Cavallo and the result should be the same. In case you were wondering Cavallo also has a website.
• Evo has grown frustrated with the opposition (the democratic process) and has made noises that he will proceed with his reforms without the Constitutional Assembly. (en esp.)
• The Hugo Shuffle continues with his bro taking over education (en esp.)...insert joke here.
  
• FT gives some lousy advice on how to deal with Hugo. It says we should reach out and talk. Stupid gringos never figure out that the anti-Americanism whether real or feigned is a vital part of the governing philosophy of the Loony Latin Left. They need someone to blame for all that ails their countries and the colossus to the north is an easy target. Hugo will talk only when petrol drops and he has no choice. That or if we elect Charles Rangel prez.
• A teen has been arrested in Venezuela for hacking into gov't sites and basically mocking Hugo.
  
• Ecuador is a riskier investment than Iraq...chew on that one for a while.
• Speaking of Ecuador the two deaths from the ETA bombings were Ecuadorian immigrants. One of them came home yesterday. (en esp.)
• A former Colombian cabinet minister escaped captivity after being held six years.
• New Presidents Ortega and Calderon have two basic issues that they will focus on this year. Calderon is stressing security (en esp.) while Ortega is stressing out over the economy. (en esp.)
• Nine bodies were found Michoacan.
• Guerrero is next for Calderon. (en esp.)
  
• Marcela Sanchez from WaPost bemoans the lack of int'l leadership in LA. Most leaders are focusing on domestic issues leaving the platform to the rabble rousing of Hugo.
• The PRD run DF government has a 250 million peso discrepancy - this is me trying not to be surprised.
  
• Chile is projecting 4.2% growth this year, its lowest in three years. (en esp.)
• Pulling a Saban (bold faced lie) - Dems are telling Colombians that their free trade pact isn't good enough for Colombia so they're seeking changes that will help all Colombians....uh...yeah, right.
• Danny Ortega wants a new presidential palace (en esp.) and it will cost the impoverished country $9 million to pay for the whole darned thing.
• AMLO is pulling an Oprah and getting a TV show. Hat tip Vivirlatino.
  

The Bolivian Visa Mess

I made a brief mention of it but in case you have not heard that if you plan on traveling to Bolivia then you are going to need to apply for a visa. I have some thoughts on the matter but since Jim Schultz at Blog from Bolivia actually knows what he is talking about so I'll let him go first:

First, a source within the government told me that the visa applications will be handled in the US by the dozen Bolivian consulates, not just the embassy in DC. That spreads out the work a little more realistically, but it could still generate more than a thousand or so applications per office per year, a huge new workload for short-staffed operations. That source also points out that a good number of the people effected by the new law will, in fact, be Bolivians living in the US who have obtained US citizenship and no longer have a valid Bolivian passport.

Second, news reports here suggest that the new US ambassador to Bolivia, Phillip Goldberg, was caught totally by surprise by the government's announcement. If so, aside from what it says about how the Morales government chose to handle the issue, it also doesn’t say much for the connections the new ambassador has forged with Bolivian authorities. Are relations so strained that no one in the US Embassy had any source that would give the US advance word?

Third, as a diplomatic gesture, the Morales announcement was odd in its timing. Just last week, during a six-senator visit to La Paz, the new leader of the US Senate, Senator Henry Reid (D-Nevada) signaled a serious thawing in US/Bolivia relations. He called Evo Morales a "magnetic personality," adding that Evo, "could be, if things work out right, the best leader this country ever had." Then two days later the Morales government announced the new visa requirements. I don't know if that will have any effect on the presumed warm and fuzzy feelings that Reid was apparently ready to bring back to Washington on behalf of the Bolivian government.

Here's my take - I agree that it hurts Bolivians a whole lot more than Americans. Consider however, that it is unlikely that those in the US constitute the backbone of Evo's support so he loses nothing in thumbing his nose at US. I am not surprised that the embassy was caught off guard by the announcement. Contacts with people in the Evo gov't were non-existent before his victory - it takes time to build relationships. Finally Schultz falls under the typical lefty delusion that if gringos are nice to anti-gringo gov'ts then all will be well. Some of Castro's most provocative moves have been prefaced by overtures from US. Nationalist appeals fall short if you don't have a threat, specifically one so big and powerful that it is easy to vilify.

Annoyed

This blog did not spring from the mind of Zeus (apologies for the obscure Greek reference) but was inspired by the failure of numerous other blogging attempts on my part and by other sites. One of the sites that inspired me was the Latin Americanist. They pretty much do the same that I do but lately they have gotten on my nerve. The last three posts have been from Prensa Latina, Cuba's gov't run news service. Not exactly an unbiased source.

True, I have my biases but I don't use any gov't media from any country as primary news source. There are dangers and pitfalls involved. For instance the first Prensa Latina story in the bunch is one in which it reports that the outgoing Nica prez, Bolanos, is being accused of being corrupt. Some context is required. Bolanos is hated by both Ortega and the man he succeeded ex-Prez Aleman. Of course they are going to go after him. I am not saying Bolanos is not corrupt it is just that the source of information is less than reliable and should be called out as such.

LA (Not So) Quick Hits: Hugo's Shocker, Mexican Mess, A Grounded Prez, Bachelet Gets Love, Correa Gets Hate & More

• Another shocker from Venezuela as Finance Minister Nelson Merentes announced he was stepping down. He will be replaced by another Hugo sychophant. Merentes was a mainstay in Hugo's cabinet and had been spared in previous shuffles. In his Foreign Policy cover story Javier Corrales explained the importance of Merentes (sub. required):

  One of Chávez’s most influential electoral whizzes is the quiet minister of finance, Nelson Merentes, who spends more time worrying about elections than fiscal solvency. Merentes’s job description is straightforward: extract the highest possible number of seats from mediocre electoral results. This task requires a deep understanding of the intricacies of electoral systems, effective manipulation of electoral districting, mobilization of new voters, detailed knowledge about the political proclivities of different districts, and, of course, a dash of chicanery. A good head for numbers is a prerequisite for the job. Merentes, no surprise, is a trained mathematician.

  The results are apparent. Renewing a passport in Venezuela can take several months, but more than 2.7 million new voters have been registered in less than two years (almost 3,700 new voters per day), according to a recent report in El Universal, a pro-opposition Caracas daily. For the recall referendum, the government added names to the registry list up to 30 days prior to the vote, making it impossible to check for irregularities. More than 530,000 foreigners were expeditiously naturalized and registered in fewer than 20 months, and more than 3.3 million transferred to new voting districts.

• The Ecuadoran Congress met and four anti-Correa parties have formed a coalition to frustrate his intention of creating a constitutional assembly (en esp.) a la Hugo. The coalition holds the majority.
• Tijuana police have walked off the job after being told to turn in their firearms - the federales wanted to investigate the use of these weapons in crimes.
• A state legislator in Acapulco was gunned down.
• In the "You've Got to Be F'in Kidding Me" Dept., two Mexican states are thinking of providing migrants with GPS locators ostensibly to show them how hard it is to cross the border. Obviously these guys are bigger liars than Nick Saban, the locators will be distributed to facilitate crossings.
• Meanwhile GPS deprived gunmen attacked a Border Patrol site manned by National Guardsmen before retreating back over the border. One report says that the site was overrun by the gunmen.
  
• Mexican laws are weird - in order for the Prez to travel out of the country he needs permission to leave from the Mexican Congress. The previous Congress rejected Fox twice and Jorge Castaneda insists that Fox did not come to the US after 9/11 out of fear of rejection.
• El Salvador is having its own "surge" in Iraq.
• The OAS is looking into Ecuador's crying (en esp.) about Colombian spraying.
• A fund for those that want to invest in Cuba before they can invest in Cuba.
• In case you were wondering Bachelet is popular in Chile.
• Zapatero says that he won't be intimidated by ETA the same way he was intimidated by Osama...actually I added that last part.
  

LA Quick Hits Bonus Edition: Rangel Routed, Bad Cops, Chavez Breaks the Law and Uribe's Going

• The shocking news from Venezuela is that Hugo has dumped Rangel from VP spot (en esp.) and replaced him with a lackey, Jorge Rodriguez. This comes from the Fidel playbook. When Fidel consolidated his power he eliminated or marginalized all that knew him from the beginning replacing them with sychophants who owed allegiance to him and only him.
  
• In a span of three years 3, 843 policemen in Mexico City have been kicked out (en esp.) for any one of a number of violations.
• Venezuela has 30 military advisors taking active roles in Bolivia (en esp.) in violation of the Bolivian constitution.
• Gabriel Garcia Marquez's One Hundred Years of Solitude turns 40 (en esp.) this year. I've never read and I won't till the boot licker dies. I can't stomach giving him a dime.
• Uribe says he'll go to Correa's inauguration.
  

LA Quick Hits: Calderon on Tijuana and Security, Hugo's Party (By Invitation Only), the Machu Men, Pulling a Hugo, Coca and Fish and More

• A second victim of the "permanent" ETA ceasefire has been found in Madrid.
• Operation Tijuana has begun with federal troops swarming into the city. Eventually 3,300 (actually 3,296) troops will be assigned to cleaning out the border town. Yesterday Calderon took the time to visit the troops that have been working to clean out Michoacan.
• Calderon also called on his security cabinet heads to devise an integrated plan to attack crime and security issues. (en esp.)
• About two weeks ago I linked to a story on Hugo's plan to forge one huge Socialist party out of the disparate elements that currently constitute his regime - NYT finally gets around to telling everyone today. Considering that it is NYT it isn't bad.
• In the LA Briefs section in the Herald there is a note on Brazil's efforts to clamp down on crime in Rio prior to the Pan Am Games. Also mentioned is the Pinochet posse being cleared of charges and a "Grand Warlock" in Mexico predicting Castro's death.
• A US senior citizens group is ripping a proposed US/Mexico accord that they say would allow illegal aliens to collect on Social Security even after they leave the US
• Let's call this the year of the Mexican Woman. The new under secretary for management at the UN is Mexican career diplo Alicia Barcena Ibarra. Criticism is that she is a former member of Kofi's crew - she was his last chief of staff.
• WaPost reports on the "Machu Men," the senatorial delegation that opted to continue with its South American jaunt while the rest of political world (and most of America) paid tribute to the late President Ford. The Machu Men, led by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid spent a total of 3 hours meeting with Alan Garcia, Evo and Correa. The rest of the time was spent galavanting in the region. The senators were accompanied by their wives...hmmm. I used to have to do business trips, lots of them. I don't ever recall anyone on a business trip taking their spouse.
• Pulling a Hugo Pt. 1 - Evo accuses his Supreme Court of being corrupt. (en esp.)
  
• Pulling a Hugo Pt. 2 - In a victory tour Correa met with neighborhood brigade members of his Movimiento Pais. (en esp.)
• In Peru another program to get farmers to stop growing/selling coca.
• Guatamalan asylum seekers in the US are getting kicked out.

The US Army Talks Cuba

The Strategic Studies Institute of the US Army War College has issued a paper on Cuba, specifically post-Castro Cuba. I will comment on Castro's Cuba: Quo Vadis? once I get around to digesting its 50+ pages.

Foreign Policy Debates Fidel

With "el lider Maximo" clinging to life the topic of a post-Castro Cuba is a ripe one for the journals. First we had Foreign Affairs with Julia Sweig's cloying take. Now Foreign Policy has a more balanced "debate" on Fidel's legacy. (sub. required) The cover of FP features the story with a photo of the bearded assasin. As for the debate in one corner we have my intellectual hero, Carlos Alberto Montaner, and in the other Castro apologist Ignacio Ramonet.

I will confess that Carlos Alberto stumbles in the opening. The debate is supposed to be on whether or not Castro was good for Cuba and instead of focusing on this Carlos Alberto strays into a discussion on how he thinks Cubans will react to Fidel kicking the bucket. It is an overly optimistic scenario with change coming relatively quickly - not only do I not subscribe to this theory but it allows Ramonet to avoid the issue of Castro's destructive reign. Once the opening salvo is done however Carlos Alberto is unrelenting and Ramonet increasingly doctrinaire. Here is where Carlos Alberto takes back the fight:

In spite of political differences, all human beings have the same hopes: They prefer freedom to oppression, human rights to tyranny, peace to war, and they want their living conditions to improve for themselves and their families. This statement is as true in Hungary as it is in Cuba. Cubans want the same changes that repressed peoples have always fought for. And when Fidel Castro’s passing provides them a chance to make those changes, they will seize it.

Just look at the facts. At cubaarchive.org, Cuban economist Armando Lago and his assistant, Maria Werlau, have compiled a balance sheet that explains why Castro’s regime forced 2 million Cubans (and their descendants) into exile. Under Castro, there have been roughly 5,700 executions, 1,200 extrajudicial murders, 77,800 dead or lost raftsmen, and 11,700 Cuban dead in international missions, most of them during 15 years of African wars in Ethiopia and Angola. Castro’s legacy will be one of bloodshed and injustice, not one of Latin “solidarity” and reform.

You blame the United States and its embargo for the Cuban people’s material problems. But your analysis ignores the devastating impact that collectivism and the lack of economic and political freedoms—not the United States—had upon Soviet Bloc countries, ultimately leading to their demise. And statistics on Cuba’s economic growth are highly suspect. The official Cuban numbers for Castro’s economic and social achievements are so poorly regarded that the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean opted not to take them into account when it compiled its own statistics on the true measures of Cuban society. And the idea that Cuba is now more independent than ever is laughable, considering that much of the economic growth that you cite is buoyed by $2 billion a year in Venezuelan subsidies.

When Castro’s revolution started, he asserted that all of the country’s economic ills originated from Washington’s exploitation of the island. Since then, he has claimed that they are due to the fact that Washington does not exploit it. Which is it? It is also a curious paradox of the Castro regime that it fiercely opposes the U.S.-backed Free Trade Area of the Americas, while it demands that the embargo be lifted so it can trade freely with the United States. These contradictions notwithstanding, the truth is that the United States is a remarkable trade partner of Cuba’s. Every year, the United States sells to Cuba roughly $350 million in agricultural products, it permits money transfers estimated at $1 billion a year (or half the island’s exports), and, what’s more, it grants resident visas to 20,000 Cubans each year, relieving the government of serious social pressures. And the United States is already preparing for the end of the sanctions once Cuba proves to be headed down the road to democracy. That is not the behavior of an implacable enemy.

From that point on Ramonet's arguments are colored by his hatred for America than anything else:

No serious organization has ever accused Cuba—where, in fact, a moratorium on the death penalty has been in place since 2001—of carrying out “disappearances,” engaging in extrajudicial executions, or even performing physical torture on detainees. The same cannot be said of the United States in its five-year-old “war on terror.” Of these three types of crimes, not a single case exists in Cuba. On the contrary, to a certain extent the Cuban regime stands for life. It has succeeded in increasing life expectancy and lowering infant mortality. As New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof asserted in a Jan. 12, 2005, article, “If the U.S. had an infant mortality rate as good as Cuba’s, [it] would save an additional 2,212 American babies a year.”

Later he brushes off human rights concerns by citing the following:

As long as we are talking about gross human rights violations, why don’t we begin with the United States’ continued protection in Miami of two avowed terrorists, Cuban exiles Luis Posada Carriles and Orlando Bosch, who are accused of blowing up a Cuban civil aircraft on Oct. 6, 1976, killing 73 people? This act has yet to be denounced by those in Miami who continue to nurse old resentments against Cuba. They have not protested against the 3,000 Cuban victims killed by terrorist actions financed by and directed from the United States. Could this be a double standard, a repudiation of “bad” (al Qaeda) terrorism and an acceptance of “good” (anti-Cuban) terrorism?

Ramonet closes his argument with the same drivel - praising Castro for not being America:

It is not even a question of an intellectual stance. Being an intellectual must be earned. And the first step is to become informed and not to mention South African apartheid while ignoring that it collapsed only when its elite troops were defeated in December 1986 at Cuito Cuanavale, “apartheid’s Stalingrad,” not by U.S. forces, but by Cuban troops. That is what prompted Nelson Mandela, an icon for our time, to say that Fidel Castro’s revolution “has been a source of inspiration to all freedom-loving people.” He, like so many of the Cubans who will mourn their leader’s passing, was wont to cry, “Viva comrade Fidel Castro!”

All the while Carlos Alberto hammers away:

In addition to this quantification of the “human cost of the revolution,” anyone who wants to know the cruelty of the communist repression in Cuba can read the 137 Amnesty International reports and press releases on the subject, or the abuses documented in numerous Human Rights Watch accounts. The most publicized crime of the Castro era has so far been the deliberate sinking of the boat “13 de Marzo” ordered on July 13, 1994, with 72 refugees on board. Of the 41 who drowned, 10 were children.

Castro will not be remembered as a luminary or an upholder of human rights. The Cuban people will look back on the Castro era with sadness. He leaves as an inheritance a detailed catalogue of how not to govern. We should have different political parties and not just one dogmatic, inflexible, impoverishing, and misguided one. We should respect human rights.

We should trust in the democratic method, in the rule of law, in the market, and in private property, just as do the most prosperous and happy nations on Earth. We must tolerate and respect religious minorities and homosexuals, forever prohibiting “acts of repudiation” or pogroms against people who are different. We must permanently eradicate the “apartheid” that prevents Cubans from enjoying the hotels, restaurants, and beaches that only foreigners are allowed to frequent. We must live in peace, giving up the international adventurism that cost so much blood in Africa, as well as in half of the planet’s guerrilla groups, which Castro inspired. With his passing, we must strive to be, in short, a normal, peaceful, and modern nation, not a delirious revolutionary project aimed at changing the history of the world.

His closing is a clarion call for liberty:

There are always intellectuals ready to justify crimes. It was the case with Stalin and Franco, and now it will be the case with Castro. It is morally incomprehensible: They love the executioners and hate the victims. How can the Cuban government simultaneously respect solidarity with its Latin neighbors and yet fail to uphold human rights in its own backyard? Where is the mutual incompatibility between solidarity and democracy? Judging a half century of incompetent and atrocious dictatorship by the cataract operations it performs is the fascist argument characteristically wielded by Franco’s apologists: His dictatorship was good because Spaniards managed to eat three times a day. It was also the argument of South Africa’s racists: Apartheid was good because the country’s blacks were not as poor as their neighbors. Castro’s dictatorship was good, we now learn, because it leased doctors to the Third World.

No, all dictatorships—like all forms of terrorism—are reprehensible. Don’t forget that Castro came to power using guerrilla and terrorist tactics (Havanans remember perfectly the “Night of 100 Bombs” in 1958), but more serious is the fact that the island has been used as a staging area for narcotraffickers, including the Colombian group farc. Do these intellectuals want a regime like Cuba’s for France? I suppose not. And if they do not want it for France or for themselves, why do they want it for us Cubans? Do we Cubans not have the right to freedom and democracy? But, despite this sad complicity, the day will come for releasing the political prisoners, for holding pluralist elections, and for beginning the material and moral reconstruction of an artificially impoverished society cruelly terrorized by repression and devastated by Stalinist totalitarianism. After Castro, Cuba will be free.

LA Quick Hits: Peace in Spain, Calderon Strikes Again, Hugo a Dictator?, Hugo Blows off Cardinal, Santero Silliness & Bit More

• We're starting off with a quick hit from special guest, Spain. The gov't has called for an end to the peace process with ETA. This after the ultimate EUnuch, PM Zapatero, had called for a wimpy suspension after the Basque separatist group set off a car bomb in Madrid. The clueless Socialists are a bit slow on this since ETA seems to have already called it off by ending their "permanent" cease-fire. Incidentally "permanent" in Spanish translates to 281 days.
• Calderon is now sending 3,000 troops to Tijuana to go after the drug gangs. Quelling the violence there is not going to be easy.
• In an interview in el Nuevo Herald Chavez dissident Manuel Rosales said that Venezuela is on the road to totalitarianism. (en esp.)
  
• Eager to prove Rosales' point Chavez is blowing off Cardinal Urosa Savino's plea that Venezuela not refuse RCTV's broadcast license renewal request. RCTV has not been nice to Chavez in the past.
• The Santeros in Cuba have made their annual predictions. Apparently there will be a funeral and we need to take care of the youth. That these predictions are so closely watched every year is annoying.
• Prison riots take place in the Bolivarian Paradise too. 16 dead in a riot there.
• Calderon says that there will be no end to his efforts to create equal opportunity for all in Mexico. (en esp.)
  

Paul Craig Roberts on Pinochet

He may be a brilliant economist but much like the late Jude Wanninski Roberts is a tad schizophrenic politically speaking. He regularly writes at the borderline racist vdare.com yet here Roberts talks up Pinochet. He also wrote a book during the high water mark of neo-liberalism extolling the virtues of capitalim in Latin America. First he compares W to Pinochet - Pinochet comes out winning:

Unlike Bush’s war on terror, in which U.S. troops are fighting abroad, Pinochet was confronted with an indigenous terrorist movement. Chilean terrorists engaged in assassinations and bombings of public infrastructure. Pinochet was able to put down real terrorist movements with less damage to Chile’s civil liberties than Bush’s trumped-up “war on terror” has caused to America’s.

According to the Rettig Commission, Chile’s struggle with terrorism resulted in 2,300 (both sides) dead and missing. Pinochet’s detainees number less than Bush’s, and the torture used against Chilean terrorist suspects was perhaps less draconian than that used by the United States against suspected Muslim terrorists. The Bush regime is responsible for many multiples of the deaths for which the Pinochet regime was responsible. Yet Pinochet is the demonized figure.

He then explains why Allende deserved to be tossed:

In truth, Allende overthrew himself. He disregarded the constitution, permitted private property to be seized by communist organizations, tolerated and assisted the formation of armed groups that operated independently of the government, and disorganized the economy to the extent that there were food shortages.

In left-wing mythology, “the popularly elected Allende” was overthrown by the tyrant Pinochet. This is far from the truth. Allende received only 36 percent of the vote and was appointed president by the Chilean congress after Allende swore an oath to respect the constitution.

Three years later, on Aug. 22, 1973, the Chilean congress censured Allende for violating law and the constitution in order to “establish a totalitarian system absolutely opposed to the representative system of government established by the Constitution.

He closes by discussing Pinochet's legacy:

Pinochet is demonized despite the fact that he established a broad-based commission to create a new constitution and scheduled elections to return the government to civil authority. To achieve reconciliation among Chileans, both terrorists and the military government were amnestied. Pinochet permitted himself to be voted out of power.

The military government kept the amnesty, but successor governments did not. In his old age, Pinochet was harassed by vengeful leftists determined to overturn the amnesty only with regard to Pinochet. That fact alone is testimony to which side of the conflict represented true character and a spirit of good will.

Today, government corruption is on the rise in Chile, as power-seeking politicians seek to remove constitutional restraints and to create economic dependencies that expand political power. It remains to be seen if the legacy of freedom that Pinochet gave to Chile will survive or whether it will succumb to the power of propaganda, just as America’s freedom is succumbing to neoconservative propaganda about the need for a police state to protect Americans from terrorism.

Lies, Damned Lies and Bolivarian Lies

Francisco Rodriguez from the libertarian Independent Institute throws cold water on the idea that Chavez's social programs are actually helping the poor:

Despite these realities, government officials routinely make sweeping claims about the success of their social programs—claims that are commonly taken at face value by international public opinion. Consider, for example, the government’s official declaration of Venezuela as an “illiteracy-free territory” on October 28, 2005, when it announced that the Cuban-designed Misión Robinson literacy program had succeeded in teaching 1.5 million Venezuelans how to read and write in just over two years. Some of the highest-ranking representatives of international bodies and foreign governments, including Spanish president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero and UNESCO director general Koichiro Matsuura, voiced their recognition and approval of this supposed achievement.

Given the extensive academic literature documenting the very low success rates of large-scale literacy programs, one would have expected a little more skepticism. Even a cursory look at the government’s figures will reveal deep inconsistencies in the official story. For starters, it seems awfully difficult to teach 1.5 million people how to read and write given that, according to the 2001 census, there were only 1.08 million illiterate persons in Venezuela. Indeed, the number of illiterate Venezuelans has never exceeded 1.5 million adults since the nation started collecting statistics in 1936. The government also claimed to have mobilized 1.8 percent of the country’s labor force as paid trainers in the program. The problem is that official employment statistics show no evidence that these trainers were ever employed and official budget figures show no evidence that they were ever paid.

In a recent paper I co-authored with Daniel Ortega and Edward Miguel, I used the raw data files of the Venezuelan National Institute of Statistics’ Household Surveys to estimate literacy rates in Venezuela during the period that the Robinson program was implemented. Our results show no evidence of the dramatic reduction in illiteracy claimed by the Venezuelan government. According to our estimates, in the second half of 2005—the first period after the government declaration regarding the eradication of illiteracy—there were still 1,014,441 illiterate Venezuelans over age 15, only slightly less than the 1,107,793 illiterate people registered during the first half of 2003 (before Robinson began). The statistical analysis carried out in our paper shows that most of this absolute decline in the number of illiterate Venezuelans can be traced to changes in the age structure rather than to any effect of the government’s literacy program.

Which Left is Winning?

I kind of like Alvaro Vargas Llosa. No, he does not posses his father's talents nor is he nuanced in his views and yes Liberty in Latin America, despite the promising title, was a painful read but Alvaro's heart is in the right place. Incidentally Liberty in Latin America is so bad that it almost made me a Chavista (just kidding). In a recent piece Alvaro notes that there have been 12 elections and 12 months and while the left is obviously winning, it is not clear which left is clearly ahead. More interesting to me is his take on the post-Fidel outlook in Cuba and Venezuela's role:

Will next year bring a change to the balance of power that seems to exist between the carnivores and the vegetarians? One factor could alter this balance of power: Cuba after Fidel. With the Maximo Lider on his way out, Chavez will assume, probably next year, the definitive leadership of the carnivores. But it is by no means a foregone conclusion that he will dictate the terms of the new Cuba.

His relationship with Raul Castro is tense. Yes, he has important allies, notably Cuban Vice President Carlos Lage, who hinted sometime ago at creating a confederation of the two countries with Chavez as president. But other “apparatchiks” resent his intrusion and are beginning to develop nationalistic sentiments that could well limit Venezuela’s influence after Fidel dies.

Castro “made” Chavez by anointing him his continental heir and helping him set up a powerful political structure a well as the foundations of the social aid network through which the Venezuelan government has made itself indispensable for large numbers of poor people. The symbolism of Cuba turning away from Venezuela would be powerful enough to do what three severe setbacks Chavez suffered in 2006—the Peruvian elections, the Mexican elections, and Venezuela’s failure to win the Latin American seat at the U.N. Security Council—did not quite achieve: bringing his regional projection back to modest proportions.

All this is quite interesting but a radical swing either towards or away from Venezuela is unlikely. One of Fidel's most trusty weapons in his bag of tricks is nationalism. There is no way that you could sell the Cuban people on a confederation with Venezuela taking the lead. Of course Raul is testy once it comes to Chavez, he recognizes the latter's obsession with succeeding Fidel in the international stage. As for Lage lining up on the opposite end that is no surprise considering that he has illusions/delusions of his own. With no internal power base to match Raul's he needs to turn to the outside for support

As for turning away that is just as unlikely. Venezuela gives Cuba too much in terms of fuel. Cuba now owes Venezuela - so much that it can't just ignore Chavez. With the only other major benefactor in the region being the US Raul is in a tough spot. I would imagine the savier Castro bro triangulating between the two extremes.

Hiatus Ends Wednesday

"LA Quick Hits" and all my inane ramblings will return tomorrow...still shaking off cobwebs.

Happy New Year! El Ano Que Viene en Cuba!

Some of my best New Year's were spent at a friends house where at midnight they would let out the traditional exile shout before breaking out into song:

Al combate corred, Bayameses,
que la patria os contempla orgullosa
no temáis una muerte gloriosa,
que morir por la patria es vivir.

En cadenas vivir, es vivir
en oprobio y afrenta sumidos;
del clarín escuchad el sonido:
a las armas, valientes, corred.