Sunday, September 30, 2007

More Hugo and His Plan for LA

Writing in the Hoover Digest where he hangs his hat William Ratliff uses W's tour of LA as an excuse to assess Hugo's vision for LA:

Polls in Latin America have found Bush slightly more popular personally than Chávez, but many Latins nonetheless resonate in varying degrees to much of what the Venezuelan has to say, and much more so now than 10 years ago. He has eagerly taken the role Fidel Castro held for decades as the region’s foremost anti-American purveyor in chief of false hope. If one flushes out the incessant ad hominem attacks on Bush and other American leaders, Chávez’s message can be boiled down to three points:

  1. Most of Latin America is plagued by seemingly intractable poverty and inequality.
  2. The United States and entrenched domestic elites and institutions are responsible for this.
  3. Chávez’s “twenty-first-century socialism” is the hope for the impoverished masses who seek a free and prosperous future.

He is dead right on the first point, partly right on the second, and dead wrong on the third.

On to our friend Hugo:

Chávez is a newfangled old-fashioned caudillo who is far more inclined toward faith than objective analysis. That faith is in Himself, the new messiah whose gospel is twenty-first-century socialism. Chávez talks of socialism, but his style is left-fascism; his sermons and actions lead to authoritarian paternalism, and not the nurturing sort. Its essence is simple: “Go home, gringo, and leave Latin America to Latins—and to Me.”

This is the earthly salvation offered by every Chavista messiah in Latin America today. But tragically, Chávez’s gospel is just corked wine in a new bottle. Twenty-first-century socialism is an aggressive and globalized rehash of the type of rule that caused and sustained Latin America’s underdevelopment over the centuries. It is the latest adaptation of the late fifteenth-century Iberian view of God, man, and institutions that over many centuries made and kept Latin America the most unequal region on earth.

Stop for a second..."most unequal region on earth." Is it really more unequal than Africa? It's not that I don't believe him but give me a stat or a footnote.

So what does LA need?
Thus Latin America’s real needs now, as in centuries past, are precisely the opposite of Chavista authoritarian socialism. It needs greater pluralism, economic liberalization, truly free trade, much higher-quality governance, greatly expanded and improved education, and more opportunity under impartial law. These policies must be put into practice in individual countries by their own leaders with popular insistence and support. Latin America is not likely to have reforms in an “Asian” mold, for those have often relied on superior leaders combining vision, realism, and patience who have not turned up often in the Latin world. Up to now, most Latins have been unwilling, which is their choice, or unable to significantly modify traditional cultural or institutional norms that prevent their societies from growing like the Asian “tigers” and “dragons.” Thus, much of Latin America is rapidly falling behind other parts of the developing world, particularly Asia.
As for our role, it is not so well defined in this piece -

Although U.S. policy itself cannot erase this Latin tradition of avoiding responsibility, it can foster reform, if Latins want it enough to sacrifice for it. Such reform also would serve U.S. interests. Besides changing some of the counterproductive U.S. policies toward Latin America, which no recent president yet has been able to do, there are other steps we can take.

President Bush’s newly discovered interest in social justice and other issues at the top of Latin agendas is a big step in the right direction. His 2007 trip was far more effective than the one to the APEC forum in Santiago, Chile, in late 2004, when he struck out with Latin public opinion while a much more personable Chinese President Hu Jintao was hitting a home run.

Finally our focus should not necessarily be on Chavez but the rest of LA:

Despite his links to Iran and Russia, Chávez is primarily a threat not to the United States but to the well-being of Latin Americans. His “socialism” will further reduce their chances of prospering or even surviving in the modern world—and that is what collides most seriously with the interests of the United States. Thus our strategy in combating him and his ideas is more constructive attention to the region as a whole, not direct combat with Caracas.

Saturday, September 29, 2007

In the Tanks: Heritage on Correa

A Heritage Foundation paper by James Roberts points out the similarities between Hugo and Correa - not much new there. All the usual notes are hit, the drive to socialism, the eagerness to rewrite the constitution, tweak the US and kiss Iranian tush. How we stop the lefty Latin slide makes up the last part of the paper:

The U.S. should do the following:

  • Reiterate to President Correa that the United States expects Ecuador to continue to respect democratic neighbors, continue cooperation on fighting drug trafficking and international crime, and invest in its own long-term stability and prosperity through policies that favor political and economic free choice;
  • Develop new programs to boost personal contact with Americans and counter the armies of Cuban doctors and Venezuelan security advisers streaming into Ecquador;
  • Increase support for civil society groups and beef up public diplomacy efforts to strengthen local voices proposing independent solutions to Ecuador's poverty and governance troubles;
  • Demonstrate goodwill regarding possible resumption of free trade talks if the situation improves; and
  • Redirect security assistance as necessary and adjust strategies if America loses tenant rights at Ecuador's Manta air base for drug interdiction efforts.
All well and good but kind of vague isn't it? I could come up with this stuff and I am not even an expert, although I play one in the blogosphere. Here's one that I would like to see us try - stop bugging our neighbor's to the south about drug trafficking. If there is money in the drug trade it is only because we want it. It's not Shorty's fault that I am 15 lbs. overweight. It is my fault for insisting on getting the full dinner of baby back ribs with a side order of corn on the cob.


I'll discuss more on it later but the Foreign Policy's cover story says it best - Legalize It.

Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Bolivia: Not So Stable

The reliably left wing and pro-Evo opendemocracy laments the growing division and polarization of Bolivia. Of course those nasty elites from Santa Cruz are to blame.

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Castro Playbook: Hugo

Hugo is now taking aim at the private schools.

Castro Playbook: Evo Style

Evo casts out the bait and tries to reel in his own Herbert Matthews. Despite the divisions and polarization in Bolivia NYT reporter Simon Romero is impressed by the nation's stability.

Baba-Bull Watch: Corn Crappers

It's hard to rip Babalu, seriously it is. Sure the rant on Nebraskan leaders kowtowing to the Cuban commies is a bit over the top...c'mon if the Cubes actually are paying cash what harm does it do? Yes they are a bunch of rubes from corn country but despite our desperate hopes it is unlikely that the next Cuban government will turn them away just because they did business with Castro. If that was the case then the free Cuban government would only be able to trade with the US and no one else.

So just when I think that Baba-Bull is a waste then comes a great post on the plight of political prisoner Normando Hernandez. It is a must read...

Eddie Reviews Kaplan

My copy hasn't even come in the mail, but Eddie seems to have already polished it off. Here is Eddie's conclusion at his relatively new blog, Hidden Unities. I think most Kaplan fans won't disagree:

So in the end, Kaplan admits that perhaps his time with the military has run its course. We can hope. I deeply admire the service Kaplan has rendered the military, especially my parent service, the Navy. I would happily recommend this book to anyone, in particular the senior NCO’s (chief petty officers in the Navy) who Kaplan convincingly portrays as some of the most involved and skilled leaders of people in the world. It would be exceptional reading for a high school or college student considering the great challenge and honor serving in the military can be. Kaplan writes of heroes, of champions who are yet often the most ordinary and down to Earth people you could ever know, despite many being legends in the making whose story is not nearly finished (Kaplan, Barnett and even Bill Kristol are on point in predicting the fine crop of political and society leaders many of them will become).

Yet we know Kaplan can do better. We need him to do better, to do more, to look above and beyond, and below. Unique challenges exist in India’s local and regional cultural, political and religious tensions, the mystery of China’s rise and what’s really in play in its countryside and breakneck development, Nigeria’s race to insolvency, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Columbia, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Southern Africa, etc. etc. He’s needed in all these places and amid a universe of serious issues that he’s addressed in the past and that now could be revisited and reconsidered. Not that he will even broach half of them, but he certainly occupies a special niche that few others can dream of filling. Yet he’s in the field of a generation of fine writers (Josef Joffe, Dana Priest, Richard Halloran, Thomas E. Ricks, etc.) who’ve already got it well-covered. Why?

For the Love of God....LET IT GO!

Herald Watch keeps all those Little Havana loonies abreast of the latest scuttlebut in the Oscar Corral case. Enough already. Let him be.

Defending the Undefendable: Magda Montiel Davis

Uh....uh....screw it. I draw the line at sticking up for sycophants, commie apologists and child molesters. Magda is at least two out of three. 26th Parallel notes Magda's latest blatant hypocrisy. Last time she did Cuba's bidding she was at least willing to take their money. Now she is taking our taxpayer dollars to help out Fidel, that is just wrong. The woman is just plain evil.

I feel compelled to state however, that I believe she is right in this case. This is no Elian situation. The mother has stated that she wants her child to be with the father. The father, motivated perhaps by the incessant images of Juan Miguel sitting by Fidel at functions wants his kid back. Regardless it is his right and the mother's wish. As for the foster parents let us not suddenly paint the normally self-serving Joe Cubas as a saint. After all he is the one that pushed for the gag order to be lifted on the case. I could be wrong but I do not recall Cubas doing anything completely self-less in his career so I am having a hard time picturing him as a hero.

Rudy Giuliani is Giving Himself Nightmares

The three time Liberal Party nominee for mayor of New York, Rudy Giuliani claims in an ad that he is the liberals' worst nightmare. I like Rudy but he is full of it here.

Sunday, September 16, 2007

Kaplan Reviewed in WaPost

Let's make this clear I am only posting this because I want to beat ComingAnarchy to the punch. Love those guys. Anyway there's a so-so review of Robert Kaplan's new book, Hog Pilots, Blue Water Grunts: The American Military in the Air at Sea, and on the Ground in WaPost's Bookworld. As much as I like Kaplan I must confess that the conclusion of the review is somewhat on target:
In the 1990s, the peripatetic Kaplan wrote the richly detailed travel narratives that American soldiers read to educate themselves about the exotic locations to which they might deploy. His Balkan Ghosts was all-but-required for every Army officer headed for Bosnia. But a few years ago, he changed tack and decided to write about the troops themselves. Both are worthwhile pursuits, but on the basis of this offering, the former represented a greater value to the nation.

Defending the Undefendable: Nick Gutierrez

Eye on Miami rips into Nick Gutierrez because of a letter he wrote defending the Bay of Pigs Memorial. Now I understand why they are upset but there is no reason to get personal. Nick is not a friend and I would not even consider him an acquaintance but I have run into him a couple of times. I'm even pretty certain that he would tear into me for some of my views. Nonetheless I have always found Nick to be gracious and accommodating.

Nick is passionate about Cuba and the cause of freedom. Lucky for him he has been able to combine his personal and professional interests. If he comes across as a bulldog sometimes, especially while wearing his professional then he is doing his job and doing it well. Knock Nick if you don't agree with him but let's not get personal especially if you don't know him.

Wesley Clark on the Next War

Wesley Clark has a piece in WaPost and as always he annoys me. More than any other general in our recent history he feels the need to convince of his genius. Perhaps it is because he fought a war that no one on the home front cared about. It is unfortunate that the lessons he learned from that effort are applicable to every potential conflict that we encounter.

Gen. Clark does not realize that his situation was unique. In the Balkans there was no tangible national interest at stake. It was the quintessential example of what Michael Mandelbaum labeled as "foreign policy as social work." Tolerance for casualties was obviously non-existent affecting both the planning and execution of the war. Let's not forget that a democratically elected leader, no matter how odious was bound to be more responsive to domestic pressure.

Clark has a number of lessons for us:
Any future U.S. wars will undoubtedly be shaped by the experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan, however painful that might be. Every military refights the last war, but good militaries learn lessons from the past. We'd better get them right, and soon. Here, the lesson from Iraq and Afghanistan couldn't be more clear: Don't ever, ever go to war unless you can describe and create a more desirable end state.
Really? What if the threat is imminent? What if we know that a state is unleashing terrorist attacks upon us but we fret that we don't know what leaders will pop up next? We knew that heroin production would ramp up as soon as the Taliban was removed. Should we have negotiated with the Taliban to hand over Osama?

Then there is this confusing passage:
After the 1991 Persian Gulf War, the U.S. military embarked upon another wave of high-tech modernization -- and paid for it by cutting ground forces, which were being repeatedly deployed to peacekeeping operations in places such as Haiti, Bosnia and Kosovo. Instead of preparing for more likely, low-intensity conflicts, we were still spoiling for the "big fight," focusing on such large conventional targets as Kim Jong Il's North Korea and Saddam Hussein's Iraq -- and now we lack adequate ground forces. Bulking up these forces, perhaps by as many as 100,000 more active troops, and refitting and recovering from Iraq could cost $70 billion to $100 billion.
Ok, so if we would not be engaged in "peacekeeping" (peace-forcing) operations we would not have had manpower shortages? We should have been preparing for "more likely, low-intensity conflicts" but we looked for a "big fight?" Didn't the big fight that never happened with N. Korea come looking for us? I would also argue that Saddam's refusal to come clean on WMDs, whether he had them or not, was the problem. So we should only look for small, tiny, little problems that have no bearing on our interests at home and send small, tiny forces with technology galore. So who takes care of the big problems? The eUNuchs?

A RINO No More - The Case of Lincoln Chafee

Not that it matters to anyone anymore but Lincoln Chafee has left the GOP. Chafee justly rips the current cons lack of fiscal discipline but are tax cuts the problem? Tax receipts have been rising so the problem is not PAYGO cuts but rather an inability to hold the line on spending. Does that mean he's got to change his first name to something perhaps more appropriate? May I recommend Buchanan or Pierce?

Hugo's Gay...Seriously

Ok, maybe not so seriously, but you know that a recent piece in a respected paper in Spain questioning Hugo's heterosexual credentials is bound to ruffle his feathers. Hat tip Vivirlatino.

Castro, Writing Fiend

LAT is the latest to reflect on Fidel's recent prodigious output. Just past the halfway point the article does note that perhaps "some" of the pieces may have been ghostwritten. The good Dr. Suchlicki gets quoted too. He thinks that Fidel is putting them together with his personal secretary, Carlos Valenciaga.

Saturday, September 15, 2007

Danny Ortega Whips Out the Castro Playbook

Only a Latin American country would willfully elect as its president a man who had plunged the nation into a bloody civil war, leaving it in economic ruins all the while sexually molesting his step-daughter. The world is justly outraged over the Czech's seeming inability to outlaw child-porn but nary a word has been uttered in the case of Danny.

Lately Danny has been making a nuisance of himself, as we knew he would. He got all huffy when Esso refused Venezuelan oil so he slapped a back-tax accusation at them. Sound familiar? That is pretty much what ended it between the US and Cuba during the Eisenhower Admin. In June 1960 American oil refineries in Cuba refused Soviet oil shipments and Castro nationalized them.

CHECK IT OUT: Orishas

The Orishas are so good that even incredibly crappy Miami radio has played them before. They have a new greatest hits collection so if you haven't listened their inventive fusion of traditional Cuban rhythms and hip-hop - now is the time to start.

CHECK IT OUT: Habana Abierto

Listen, I love Gloria but her music is crap and she can't sing to save her life. If you want to check out something totally different be sure to go to the Dade County Auditorium on October 27 to check out Habana Abierta. The versatile Nat Chediak produced their Boomerang their last release which I can highly recommend. Encuentro en la red has conveniently posted Habana Abierta videos, be sure to visit.

Bringing the Troops Home Now! Means 20 Months

This is for all those bumper sticker politicos who talk a good game but have no idea of what they are talking about. This is Max Boot in Commentary talking about how not to get out of Iraq:
In any case, there is no simple or safe way rapidly to remove 160,000 troops, 64,000 foreign contractors, 45,000 vehicles, and millions of tons of equipment from a war zone. Estimates from within the American military suggest that an orderly departure would take, at a minimum, 12 to 20 months to accomplish. (In Vietnam, our withdrawal was conducted over four years.) To leave faster than that would require a precipitous abandonment of allies and equipment. U.S. forces would have to fight their way out of the country along Route Tampa, the main supply line to the south, with insurgents determined at every inch of the way to inflict a final humiliation on the defeated superpower. The pell-mell scramble would likely produce traumatic images akin to those of the last helicopter lifting off from a Saigon rooftop in 1975.

In light of this grisly prospect, most advocates of withdrawal suggest a timeline that, they hope, would make our retreat somewhat more orderly. The leading legislation along these lines, co-sponsored by Carl Levin and Jack Reed in the Senate and Ike Skelton in the House, would begin troop withdrawals within 120 days of passage and complete the process by next April. This legislation passed the House in July but was blocked in the Senate by Republicans seeking to give the administration, and General David Petraeus, time to meet the September 15 deadline for an assessment of the surge’s progress.

Under the terms of the Levin-Reed bill, the President would still have the option, even after April 2008, to retain a “limited presence” of troops for various missions yet to be specified. In this, the legislation’s sponsors were following the work of the Iraq Study Group (ISG), whose December 2006 report has become a touchstone for many critics of the war. The ISG, too, called for a general pullout, to culminate if possible by next spring. But even after the withdrawal of “all combat brigades not necessary for force protection,” other U.S. forces, according to the ISG, could be deployed “in units embedded with Iraqi forces, in rapid-reaction and special-operations teams, and in training, equipping, advising, force protection, and search-and-rescue.”

Friday, September 14, 2007

ZBig Lie

Zbigniew Brzezinski (God I hate spelling his name) is coming out for Obama. He used this opportunity to tout the Carter administration's achievement in MidEast policy. Noah Pollack is less than impressed:
The administration didn’t “bring about” peace between Israel and Egypt so much as hold a summit at Camp David to work out the details after Israel and Egypt had already committed themselves, independently and entirely in pursuit of their own interests, to a peace treaty. From the outset of the Carter administration, the American commitment had been not to a deal between Israel and Egypt, but to a comprehensive resolution of the Palestinian question, and it was during the administration’s busy pursuit of a renewed Geneva Conference, inclusive of the Soviet Union, Israel, and the PLO, that the Israel-Egypt deal essentially fell into Carter’s lap.

Castroism Will Not Survive Castro (Fidel)

Irving Louis Horowitz who along with one of my favorite professors ever, Jaime Suchlicki (guess where I went to school?) puts together the indispensable anthology Cuban Communism (currently in its 11th edition) has a piece in the latest issue of The National Interest (sub. required). Horowitz draws interesting parallels between Spain's Francisco Franco and Fidel, noting that the system Franco did not survive him and that Castro's is unlikely to survive him. That does not mean however that he expects to democracy to flourish anytime soon:

Despite some of the more prevalent predictions regarding Cuba, my own thinking is that Cuba will become neither benevolent democracy nor benign dictatorship in the near future. Instead, one can expect a return to the classical Latin model of military authority. The fact that Raúl Castro has been Cuba’s defense minister since the early 1960s and has also served as a direct representative of Fidel in strategic policy issues provides a linchpin and continuum that may not be royal but is certainly dynastic.

The Cuban military, the only solid force in the nation other than the Communist Party, will indeed inhibit, if not dismantle, the current communist apparatus. At the same time, it will severely limit tendencies toward multiparty change. Even if Raúl Castro is open to some sort of power-sharing arrangement with others, his own strong links to the armed forces almost ensure his role as maximum leader. The transition from the charismatic Fidel to Raúl will be characterized by an elevated public presence of Cuba’s armed forces.

In the end, however, the system that Fidel hoped to create will go with him:
What I will forward with some certitude is that the same final judgment made by the fine historian Raymond Carr on the Spanish tyrant Franco will also await the Cuban tyrant, Fidel Castro: "His rule, he claimed, would be for life. And so it turned out to be. But ‘the novel solution’ could not outlast its architect. There was no Francoism after Franco." And so it will be with Fidel Castro: There will be no Castroism after Castro.

The common aspects of Francoism and Castroism limit their continuation. Both were driven by a cult of personality that becomes difficult to extend beyond the life of the person. And the sweeping repression so central to both dictatorships depends on an image of invincibility that is often undermined by the death of the leader. The reliance on foreign allies generally makes the dictatorship less tenable and the dependence on a command economy becomes unsustainable, particularly in the current Cuban context.

The expected death of Castroism becomes the ultimate irony and penalty of foisting upon a decent people a truncated Marxism-Stalinism, making endless appeals to personal sacrifice and metaphysical history, instead of governing through modest guidance and the presumption that human beings are quite capable of determining their own lives.

Only if You Are Voting for Ron Paul

If you like Ron Paul, you'll love Lew Rockwell. There was actually one day last week when he managed not to post a story on Ron Paul. I confess a weakness for both Paul and Rockwell. Paul got my vote the first time I voted for Prez (dating myself). As for Rockwell he was essential in the creation and success of the Ludwig von Mises Institute. I never found him to be as capable a polemicist as his mentor Murray Rothbard, but he has carried on Rothbard's legacy . I need to make it clear that there are good and bad things about that legacy. If you are not sure what I am talking about read Brian Doherty's excellent Radicals for Capitalism. I was also a charter subscriber to the Rothbard Rockwell Report even though I was hardly a fan of its paleocon/paleolib experiment. I should make it clear that I have no intention of voting for Paul this time and that while I am intrigued by Rockwell's site I am rarely, if ever, in agreement.

Richard Haas on Petraeus

Richard Haas the Prez of CFR and the author of the worthwhile, if somewhat simplistic, The Opportunity likes what he saw from Petraeus and Croker:

My overriding impression is that the administration has, to some extent—maybe a large extent—regained control of the Iraq debate and that two arguments seem to be gaining traction. One is that anything that smacked of what the Iraq Study Group termed a “precipitous withdrawal” would be a strategic error. Secondly, there has been sufficient progress, at least on the military side in certain areas, to justify some continuation of the policy. On top of that, Petraeus added the dimension of some withdrawals and as I understand it we are essentially looking at a return to pre-surge levels by next spring/ summer.

So in some ways, as a result, he has co-opted the reductions argument. Let me complicate things with one more point. Even a lot of the Democrats who opposed the policy aren’t calling for total withdrawal. If you deconstruct their position, a lot of them are talking about residual forces in certain places for certain missions. So essentially now we are talking about the pace of drawdown and the size and the role of the residual force. That to me is an “inside-the-Beltway” debate. So what this suggests to me is that sixteen months from now, when a new president takes over, you are likely to see a U.S. presence of plus-or-minus 100,000 troops in Iraq, doing a lot of training, but still doing some combat missions in the central part of the country. Again, I think the bottom line is that the administration has probably bought itself sixteen more months of something that looks a lot like the status quo.

Kaplan on Petraeus and His Report

Kaplan is obviously a fan of Gen. Petraeus. All this Petraeus talk makes me want to re-read Atkinson's In the Company of Soldiers, which I confess to not liking the first time around. First Kaplan says that the General is the right man for the right time:
In previous wars, presidents have reached down into the bureaucracy to find the most competent generals. Lincoln was famous for discarding generals until he got the right one, Ulysses S. Grant. John Pershing was promoted above other officers to command troops in World War I. George C. Marshall and Dwight D. Eisenhower were also plucked from the ranks to command troops in World War II. But George W. Bush and his secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, settled for a barely competent general, Ricardo Sanchez, for the absolutely crucial job of getting the military occupation of Iraq off to a good start. When Sanchez failed, they then settled for a merely ordinary man, George Casey, under whom the situation continued to deteriorate. If you are whom you appoint, Sanchez and Casey speak volumes about the Bush administration. It took nearly four years of war for the Bush administration to choose the kind of general that previous presidents would have been hunting for—and demanding—from the very beginning: David Petraeus.
Kaplan dismisses the notion that either Petraeus or Amb. Crocker could be percieved as Bush men.
The idea that General Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker are front men for the administration is ludicrous. Until he took the job as overall ground commander in Iraq, Petraeus was a favorite of liberal journalists: the Princeton man who enjoyed the company of the media and intellectuals, so much so that he was vaguely distrusted by other general officers who envied the good ink he received. As for Crocker, he is a hard-core Arabist, a professional species that I once wrote a book about: He is the least likely creature on earth to buy into neoconservative ideas about the Middle East. Neither of these men are identified with the decision to go to war. If I had to bet, I’d say that Crocker especially would have been against it, like his other Arabist colleagues. Thus, these men have no personal stake in proving the president right. They and their staffs are much more likely to provide a balanced analysis of the reality in Iraq than senators and congressmen looking over their shoulders at opinion polls and future elections. As Petraeus said, “I wrote this testimony myself,” meaning, the White House had nothing to do with it. Watching them brief Congress Monday, I came away convinced that they made a better impression on the public than anyone else in the room.
Kaplan ultimately believes things are getting better, but we are still going to be stuck...

Probably the two most interesting statements in Petraeus’s report will get little coverage. First, that the data analysis he used to brief Congress was found by two intelligence agencies to be the best available on the Iraq war, and that reenlistment rates of troops in Iraq are above average: 130 percent among younger enlistees and 115 percent among those in mid-career. Those statistics constitute telling evidence that the troops themselves continue to find great meaning in their work, suggesting that they certainly don’t believe the cause is lost.

Of course, there is a basic contradiction in the analyses of Petraeus and Crocker. If Iraq has made all the progress they show in their charts and yet would fall apart if we left, then how relevant is that progress in the first place? The editorial writers at The New York Times remind us that military progress is meaningless without political progress. By that logic, since there has been no tangible national reconciliation at the top levels of government in Baghdad, there has been no meaningful progress at all. But that may be too neat an equation. If the surge has helped fortify political progress on the ground at the tribal level in Anbar and other regions of the country—by solidifying the Sunni alliance against al-Qaeda—then perhaps we should not rush toward the exit gates. Just because we can’t engineer change at the top does not mean that we can’t engineer change at the bottom in a way that will gradually and organically affect the top. As Crocker said, “The current course is hard; the alternatives are far worse.” Indeed, as Petraeus indicated, a rapid withdrawal would unleash centrifugal forces in Iraq that would tear the country further apart, whereas a slow and gradual withdrawal over time will improve the situation.

Alas, a series of dictators, culminating in Saddam Hussein, built a state out of a multiconfessional and multiethnic hodgepodge. Because that hodgepodge was so unwieldy—a Frankenstein monster of a polity—the force required to control it was, by necessity, tyrannical in the extreme. With that extreme tyranny now dismantled, rebuilding the Iraqi state must begin from scratch. It may be no accident that the progress we have seen is at the bottom, since that might be the only place where such progress can even begin to take hold.

Bottom line: I suspect we will be stuck in Iraq with tens of thousands of troops for years to come. The results we obtain may be meager, but they’ll still be better than if we suddenly withdrew.

Fred at Versailles

Andrew Sullivan posts a pic of Fred Thompson munching on a pastelito . Hey Fred! They have better ones at Gilbert's.

Defending the Undefendable: Oscar Corral

Don't get me wrong it is hard not to snicker over the whole Oscar Corral kerfuffle aka Hummergate, but enough already. So every right-wing Cube's favorite Herald reporter gets busted seeking the assistance of the professional to relieve him of that after work stress and he gets busted. Obviously he exercised poor judgement, but does he really deserved to be raked over the coals for it? He got busted, he's obviously been suspended or fired and that all pails in comparison to whatever he had waiting for him when he got home. Just let it be already. So the Herald didn't make the arrest a front page story, so what? No one cares about Oscar Corral except the Cubes, trust me. A congressman getting busted...that is front page news. A story about journalists and a potential conflict of interest...even if it was COMPLETELY erroneous...that is front page news. A local reporter busted for trying to pay for a BJ, the only reason it's news is because so many people hate him already.

HeraldWatch an otherwise enjoyable and informative blog links to content provided by Antonio de la Cova, PhD. Seriously, doesn't someone with a PhD have something more important to do. Or have something with a tad more intellectual heft to devote his time to? Apparently not. de la Cova makes what I assume he thinks are brilliant points in Hummergate. The man even goes through the trouble of posting the police reports for Corral, the prostitute and the pimp. de la Cova needs a life or a better job that will occupy his time.

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

David Remnick on the Israel Lobby Controversy

David Remnick is a good and thoughtful writer. There is no better work about the deathroes of the Soviet Union than his Lenin's Tomb. As a boxing fan King of the World, his take on Muhammad Ali and his legacy, was a delight. As for what he has done to the New Yorker, forget about it. Much like Michael Kelly at The Atlantic he has brought a moribound mag back to life.

For the uninitiated John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt, two respected foreign policy experts and realists wrote a ponderous essay ripping the "Israel Lobby." Now they have turned the massive essay into an equally massive book. With little to no original research or work it is more of an extended essay...on steroids. I have not read too much Walt but I did like Mearsheimer's The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. Ironically his concept of "offensive realism" was the basis for my support of the war in Iraq, a war he opposed. Enough of my babbling here is Remnick on the not-so-dynamic duo of Mearsheimer and Walt:
Mearsheimer and Walt are not anti-Semites or racists. They are serious scholars, and there is no reason to doubt their sincerity. They are right to describe the moral violation in Israel’s occupation of Palestinian lands. (In this, most Israelis and most American Jews agree with them.) They were also right about Iraq. The strategic questions they raise now, particularly about Israel’s privileged relationship with the United States, are worth debating––just as it is worth debating whether it is a good idea to be selling arms to Saudi Arabia. But their announced objectives have been badly undermined by the contours of their argument—a prosecutor’s brief that depicts Israel as a singularly pernicious force in world affairs. Mearsheimer and Walt have not entirely forgotten their professional duties, and they periodically signal their awareness of certain complexities. But their conclusions are unmistakable: Israel and its lobbyists bear a great deal of blame for the loss of American direction, treasure, and even blood.
Then he gets into details:

It’s a narrative that recounts every lurid report of Israeli cruelty as indisputable fact but leaves out the rise of Fatah and Palestinian terrorism before 1967; the Munich Olympics; Black September; myriad cases of suicide bombings; and other spectaculars. The narrative rightly points out the destructiveness of the Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and America’s reluctance to do much to curtail them, but there is scant mention of Palestinian violence or diplomatic bungling, only a recitation of the claim that, in 2000, Israel offered “a disarmed set of Bantustans under de-facto Israeli control.” (Strange that, at the time, the Saudi Prince Bandar told Yasir Arafat, “If we lose this opportunity, it is not going to be a tragedy. This is going to be a crime.”) Nor do they dwell for long on instances when the all-powerful Israel lobby failed to sway the White House, as when George H. W. Bush dragged Yitzhak Shamir to the Madrid peace conference.

Lobbying is inscribed in the American system of power and influence. Big Pharma, the A.A.R.P., the N.R.A., the N.A.A.C.P., farming interests, the American Petroleum Institute, and hundreds of others shuttle between K Street and Capitol Hill. Zbigniew Brzezinski, President Carter’s national-security adviser, recently praised Mearsheimer and Walt in the pages of Foreign Policy for the service of “initiating a much-needed public debate,” but he went on to provide a tone and a perspective that are largely missing from their arguments. “The participation of ethnic or foreign-supported lobbies in the American policy process is nothing new,” he observes. “In my public life, I have dealt with a number of them. I would rank the Israeli-American, Cuban-American, and Armenian-American lobbies as the most effective in their assertiveness. The Greek- and Taiwanese-American lobbies also rank highly in my book. The Polish-American lobby was at one time influential (Franklin Roosevelt complained about it to Joseph Stalin), and I daresay that before long we will be hearing a lot from the Mexican-, Hindu-, and Chinese-American lobbies as well.”

Rigoberta Men-loser

NYT is left scratching its collective cranium and the abysmal failure that was Rigoberta Menchu's stillborn presidential bid. They whip out a whole bunch of reasons and trip over a part of the truth:
Ms. Menchú won her prize while living in exile in Mexico, and has always been far better known outside Guatemala than at home.
Then there is shall we say the inconvenient truth about Menchu and her claim to fame as recounted by the admittedly annoying David Horowitz (trust me, he's a self-important prig):
Published in 1982, I, Rigoberta Menchu was actually written by a French leftist, Elisabeth Burgos-Debray, wife of the Marxist, Regis Debray, who provided the "foco strategy" for Che Guevaras failed effort to foment a guerilla war in Bolivia in the 1960s. The idea of the foco was that urban intellectuals could insert a military front inside a system of social oppression, and provide the catalyst for revolutionary change. Debrays misguided theory got Guevara and an undetermined number of Bolivian peasants killed, and as we shall see, is at the root of the tragedies that overwhelmed Rigoberta Menchu and her family, and that are (falsely) chronicled in I, Rigoberta Menchu.
Horowitz then talks about David Stoll and his findings:
These and other pertinent details have now been established by anthropologist David Stoll, one of the leading academic experts on Guatemala. Stoll interviewed more than 120 Guatemalans, including relatives, friends, neighbors, and former teachers and classmates of Rigoberta Menchu, over a ten-year period, as the basis of his new biography, Rigoberta Menchu And The Story of All Poor Guatemalans. To coincide with the publication of Stoll's book, the New York Times sent reporter Larry Rohrter to Guatemala to attempt to verify Stolls findings, which he was readily able to do.

Perhaps the most salient of Stolls findings is the way in which Rigoberta has distorted the sociology of her family situation, and that of the Mayans in the region of Uspantan, to conform to Marxist precepts. The Menchus were not part of the landless poor, and Rigoberta had no brother who starved to death, at least none that her own family could remember. The ladinos were not a ruling caste in Rigobertas town or district, in which there were no large estates, or fincas, as she claims. Far from being a dispossessed peasant, Vicente Menchu had title to 2,753 hectares of land. The 22-year land dispute described by Rigoberta, which is the central event in her book leading to the rebellion and the tragedies that followed was, in fact, over a tiny, but significant, 151 hectare parcel. Most importantly, Vicente Menchus "heroic struggle against the landowners who wanted to take our land" was in fact not a dispute with representatives of a European-descended conquistador class, but with his own Mayan relatives, the Tum family, headed by his wifes uncle.

Vicente Menchu did not organize a peasant resistance called the Committee for Campesino Unity. He was a conservative peasant insofar as he was political at all. Even more importantly, his consuming passion was not any social concern, but the family feud with his in-laws, who were small landowning peasants like himself. It was his involvement in this family feud that caused him to be caught up in the larger political drama enacted by students and professional revolutionaries, that was really irrelevant to his concerns and that ultimately killed him.

At the end of the Seventies, coinciding with a global Soviet offensive, Cubas Communist dictator, Fidel Castro, launched a new turn in Cuban foreign policy, sponsoring and arming a series of guerrilla uprisings in Central America. The most significant of these were in Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Guatemala, and followed lines that had been laid down by Regis Debray and Che Guevara a decade before. The leaders of these movements were generally not Indian peasants but urban Hispanics, principally the disaffected scions of the middle- and upper-classes. They were often the graduates of cadre training centers in Moscow and Havana, and of terrorist training camps in Lebanon and East Germany. (The leaders of the Salvadoran guerillas even included a Lebanese Communist and Shiite Muslim named Shafik Handal.)

One of these forces, Guatemalas Guerrilla Army of the Poor, showed up in Uspantan, the largest township near Rigobertas village of Chimel, on April 29, 1979. According to eyewitnesses, the guerrillas painted everything within reach red, grabbed the tax collectors money and threw it in the streets, tore down the jail, released the prisoners, and chanted in the town square, "Were defenders of the poor," for fifteen or twenty minutes.

None of the guerilla intruders was masked, because none of them was local. As strangers, they had no understanding of the situation in Uspantan in which virtually all the land disputes were between the Mayan inhabitants themselves. Instead, they perceived the social problem according to the Marxist textbook version, which has now been perpetuated by Rigoberta and the Nobel Prize committee through Rigobertas book. In their first revolutionary act, the guerrillas executed two local ladino landholders.

Thinking that this successful violence had established the guerrillas as the power in his region, Vicente Menchu cast his fate with them, providing them with a meeting place, and accompanying them on a protest. But Guatemalas security forces, which had been primed for Castros Soviet-backed hemispheric offensive, responded by descending on the region with characteristic brutality. The killings that ensued were abetted by enraged relatives of the murdered ladino peasants seeking revenge on the leftist assassins. The trail of violence left many innocents slaughtered in its wake, including Rigobertas parents and a second brother (whose death Rigoberta sensationalizes by falsely claiming that he was burned alive and that she and her parents were forced to witness the act).

The most famous incident in Rigobertas book is the January 1980 occupation of the Spanish embassy in Guatemala City by a group of guerrillas and protesting peasants. Vicente Menchu was the peasant spokesman. The occupation itself was led by the Robin Garcia Revolutionary Student Front. A witness described to David Stoll how Vicente Menchu was primed for his role:

They would tell Don Vicente, "Say, The people united will never be defeated," and Don Vicente would say, The people united will never be defeated. They would tell Don Vicente, Raise your left hand when you say it, and he would raise his left hand.

When they had set out on the trip that brought them to the Spanish Embassy, the Uspantan peasants who accompanied the student revolutionaries had no idea where they were going, or what the purpose of the trip actually was. Later, David Stoll interviewed a survivor whose husband had died in the incident. She told him that the journey originated in a wedding party at the Catholic church in Uspantan. Two days after the ceremony, the wedding party moved on. "The señores said they were going to the coast, but they arrived at the capital." Once there, the student revolutionaries proceeded with their plan to occupy the embassy and take hostages, with the unsuspecting Mayans ensnared. Although the cause of the tragedy that ensued is in dispute, David Stoll presents persuasive evidence that a Molotov cocktail brought by the students ignited and set the embassy on fire. At least 39 people, including Vicente Menchu, were killed.

As a result of Stolls research Rigoberta Menchu has been exposed as a Communist agent working for terrorists who were ultimately responsible for the death of her own family. So rigid is Rigobertas party loyalty to the Castroist cause, that after her book was published and she became an international spokesperson for indigenous peoples, she refused to denounce the Sandinista dictatorships genocidal attempt to eliminate its Miskito Indians. She even broke with her own translator, Elisabeth Burgos-Debray, over the issue of the Miskitos (Burgos-Debray, along with other prominent French leftists, had protested the Sandinista attacks.)

Rigobertas response to this exposure of her lies has been, on the one hand, "no comment" and, on the other, to add another liethe denial that she had anything to do with the book that made her famous. But David Stoll listened to two hours of the tapes she made for Burgos-Debray (which provided the text for the book) and has concluded that the narrative they recorded is identical to the (false) version of the facts in the book itself. Of course, Rigoberta did not disclaim authorship of the book when she accepted her Nobel Prize.

The fictional life of Rigoberta Menchu is a piece of Communist propaganda designed to incite hatred of Europeans and Westerners, and the societies they have built, and to organize support for Communist and terrorist organizations at war with the democracies of the West. It has also become the single most influential social treatise read by American college students. Over 15,000 theses have been written on Rigoberta Menchu the world overall accepting her lies as gospel. Rigoberta herself has been the recipient of 14 honorary doctorates at prestigious institutions of higher learning, and the Nobel Prize committee has made Rigoberta an international figure and spokesperson for "social justice and peace."

Almost as remarkable as the hoax itself, and indicative of the enormous cultural power of its perpetrators, is the fact that the revelation of Rigobertas mendacity has changed nothing. The Nobel committee has already refused to take back her prize, the thousands of college courses that make her book a required text for American college students will continue to do so, and the editorial writers of the major press institutions have already defended her falsehoods on the same grounds that supporters of Tawana Brawleys parallel hoax made famous: even if shes lying, shes telling the truth.

That NYT would cast its lot with this shameless grifter is not surprising, nor is the failure to mention the lies that her book told.

Those Nasty Right-Wing Cubans

I read this piece in the WSJ the other day and meant to comment on it but Babalu pretty much covered it all. I will say this, I came out against the embargo quite publicly in a piece I wrote for a college paper here in Miami. It had started as a pro-embargo editorial but as I worked on it I found flaws in my thinking and I took a radically and unexpected turn. So I warned the parents and braced myself for the onslaught...the onslaught that never came. My fellow College Republicans chided me, my Bay of Pigs vet uncle bugged me and my childhood buddy's dad bombed me with literature but no one reproached me or threatened me. My mom, who worked at the school did not even get nasty comments from co-workers. Perhaps my conservative and anti-Castro activities shielded me from criticism but why didn't I get ripped by people who had no idea that I had once traveled to DC to lobby for continuing the embargo? Maybe we aren't so bad. Maybe we are more tolerant than we are made out to be.

Saturday, September 08, 2007

Holding My Nose...

The hardest thing about being anti-embargo is the company I keep. Christopher Dodd, erstwhile candidate for the Democratic nomination for president and a commie lover from way back, is calling for the end of the embargo. I didn't think there was a doubt where he stood. I'm actually surprised that he isn't calling for a free-trade pact with Fidel.

Previously the Dodd campaign had put out release on Dodd's support for removing restrictions on travel to Cuba. Typical B.S. statement topped off with this winner.
The Island of Cuba is in the throes of a transition to a post-Castro Cuba. A US policy of staying the course leaves us on the sides as the future of Cuba is being written. It is time to engage before it is too late to have a positive influence on the political landscape which is rapidly taking shape there. In a Dodd administration the United States will engage with the Cuban people in support of a peaceful transition to democracy.
"Throes of transition?" What transition? Nothing substantive has changed...nothing. And seriously what is the danger of being "on the sides" while the future of Cuba is written? It is one of the poorest countries in the hemisphere, what do we as a country lose in not dealing with Cuba during its "throes of transition?" Seriously, what candidate is going to say that it is not willing to "engage the Cuban people in support of a peaceful transition to democracy?" Can't it be said that is also an accurate description of what W. is trying to do for Cuba?

Hat Tip the commie loving Steve Clemons at Washington Note and Havana Note.

Baba-Bull Watch

Let's face it. I only want to rip BabaluBlog because they are more popular than me. Actually there are other reasons too. First, is the fact that anyone more right-wing than me has to be a knuckle dragging Neanderthal. Then there is their obsessive focus on Cuba. Understandable, I know ,because it is a blog about Cuba, but what I mean is that Cuba comes first...even before the country they know best and bestowed upon them the blessings of liberty that are denied to native Cubans.


I call myself theCardinal because much like Cardinal Richelieu I have divided loyalties. His loyalty was purportedly to the church but ultimately he served his country before his God. My conundrum stems from being an American of Cuban descent. I am certain that the death of Castro will launch me out of my house and somewhere in the middle of Calle Ocho so I can laugh, sing and dance with everyone else. Yet when it comes down to it I am an American first and American interests are my primary concern. And let there be no doubt there is a divergence in what is good for America and what we Cubans in Miami want for Cuba.

Most Cubans still cling to the embargo as if it was holy writ, but let us examine what Cuban-Americans hope to accomplish with it. What they hope for is that this will cause the collapse of the commie regime and that democracy would immediately take its place. That's just plain nuts. Cubans in Miami have been here for 47 years and as it is we barely have the political maturity to run a city or a county. So we expect people who have known nothing else but corruption and communism in all that time will immediately adapt?

A collapse would be catastrophic for the US - a veritable flotilla of boats, rafts, dingies and god knows what would make its way to South Florida. We also don't know how bad order would breakdown without authorities to maintain control.

What I am saying is that even though Castro is more to blame for the crappy Cuban economy than the embargo it is in our interest to improve Cuba's economic performance. It is absurd to think that an island with a population smaller than the state of Florida could possibly pose a geopolitical threat

The Miami Herald Sucks...and So Do Its Readers

Hit some news sites this morning to see what the top stories were. The much maligned Drudge Report plasters Osama's latest video release above the banner and has a note above that mentioning that the Republican and Bush critic Chuck Hagel is quitting the senate. NYT has their typical "sky is falling as long as a Republican is in the White House" piece. This time the focus is not Iraq but the economy...something they have pretty much ignored for the better part of six years except when gas prices went up.

The Washington papers have a more international focus. The PWaPost tells us what to expect from Gen. Petraeus's report and the Times recounts the testy exchange between W and South Korean Prez Roh Moo-hyun.

Meanwhile LAT and my beloved Herald have local concerns topping their websites. LAT reports that a locally based lender is laying off 12,000. And the Herald has what you ask? What critical story tops its site? The headline literally leads with the following "Dade mom recruited to check out McDonald's."

What is wrong with my hometown paper? No one doubts that the Herald reporters look down upon their Spanish sister paper el Nuevo Herald but even they top off their site with the "historic" Hispanic presidential forum to be held at UM.

As for Herald readers all I can say is that they really aren't interested in the news to begin with. Of the most viewed stories on the site seven are sports related. Five of those deal with the truly awful Dolphins. Of the three remaining pieces one is the aforementioned Micky D Mom Inspector, a story about a tropical storm warning for the Carolinas and finally a piece on gambling in Seminole Indian casinos

Friday, September 07, 2007

theCardinal's Return...and Manu Chao's

Other than the fact I am incredibly lazy I have no excuse for disappearing for the better part of 8 months. So here I go again easing my way into it. Once again I have been somewhat inspired by the LatinAmericanist to get things going again. My favorite commie troubadour, Manu Chao, has a new album out. Sure his simplistic, antiquated political beliefs are annoying but the man is a musical genius. The new release Radiolina seems to sound like typical Manu Chao but with more of a guitar edge. No, I don't have it yet...waiting for my Amazon delivery.